Meizhou Kejia 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Meizhou Kejia host SHANGHAI SIPG at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 15 December 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Meizhou Kejia — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Meizhou Kejia's home record at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Meizhou Kejia are significantly better at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SHANGHAI SIPG — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Meizhou Kejia register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Meizhou Kejia, 1 for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2022, ended 0–7 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Meizhou Kejia in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 47% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 53% | SHANGHAI SIPG 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.29 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.138 / defence 0.999 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.988 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.401. Data: 30 Meizhou Kejia games / 44 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 33% | Draw 29% | SHANGHAI SIPG 38%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 70% | SHANGHAI SIPG 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Dec 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 33% | Draw 29% | SHANGHAI SIPG 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.29 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.138 / def 0.999 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.988 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.38
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 11:30 on Thursday 15 December 2022 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Meizhou Kejia 0 - 1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 33% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (1 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 0W | Draws 0 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Meizhou Kejia's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
33%
3.01
29%
3.42
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.67
1.38
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
8%
12.00
10%
9.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.5 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.38 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Meizhou Kejia come into this having played 30 games, going 12W 7D 11L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, SHANGHAI SIPG sit at 1.77 PPG from 30 outings (16W 5D 9L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Meizhou Kejia on 1.43 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Meizhou Kejia's home form reads 7W 3D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, SHANGHAI SIPG have taken 1.71 points per game from 14 outings (7W 3D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.50 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 12W 7D 11L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 16W 5D 9L in their last 30 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.71 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Meizhou Kejia or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Meizhou Kejia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Meizhou Kejia and SHANGHAI SIPG runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 2 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SHANGHAI SIPG go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2022, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Meizhou Kejia's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Meizhou Kejia
1
Draws
7
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 8 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 0, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 2-4 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 71%, SHANGHAI SIPG 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Meizhou Kejia and 57% for SHANGHAI SIPG. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 57% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 57% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Meizhou Kejia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Meizhou Kejia 0-1 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.29 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.38 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Meizhou Kejia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.14 / defence 1.00 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.99 / defence 0.82, drawn from 30/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 33% | Draw 29% | SHANGHAI SIPG 38%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 53%, SHANGHAI SIPG 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Meizhou Kejia 1.43 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SHANGHAI SIPG win broke the near-deadlock. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.