Meizhou Kejia 1-2 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 76% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Meizhou Kejia host SHANGHAI SIPG at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 18 June 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Meizhou Kejia — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Meizhou Kejia's home record at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Meizhou Kejia are significantly better at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Meizhou Kejia at 1.50 PPG versus SHANGHAI SIPG's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Meizhou Kejia register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour SHANGHAI SIPG, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Meizhou Kejia.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Meizhou Kejia in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 55% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 56% | SHANGHAI SIPG 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 0.71 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.605 / defence 0.978 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.797 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.403. Meizhou Kejia's attack strength of 0.605 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack strength of 1.797 — the away xG of 2.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Meizhou Kejia games / 44 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 8% | Draw 16% | SHANGHAI SIPG 76%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 12.50 | Draw 6.25 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.32. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (76%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 76% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Meizhou Kejia 70% | SHANGHAI SIPG 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Jun 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 8% | Draw 16% | SHANGHAI SIPG 76% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 47% | xG Meizhou Kejia 0.71 / SHANGHAI SIPG 2.47 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.605 / def 0.978 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.797 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
2.47
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
47%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:35 on Tuesday 18 June 2024 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Meizhou Kejia 1 - 2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 8% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 76% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (4 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 0W | Draws 1 | SHANGHAI SIPG 3W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Meizhou Kejia's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 2.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-3 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
8%
12.30
16%
6.11
76%
1.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
10.5%
Away win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
3.17
2.47
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
12.30
8%
Home win
6.11
16%
Draw
1.32
76%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
8%
11.79
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
1%
144.98
37%
2.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 3.2 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 2.47 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Meizhou Kejia come into this having played 64 games, going 23W 14D 27L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, SHANGHAI SIPG sit at 2.00 PPG from 64 outings (39W 11D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Meizhou Kejia's home form reads 16W 6D 10L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, SHANGHAI SIPG have taken 2.03 points per game from 32 outings (20W 5D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.81 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 23W 14D 27L in their last 64 games (1.30 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 39W 11D 14L in their last 64 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.69 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Meizhou Kejia or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Meizhou Kejia have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Meizhou Kejia and SHANGHAI SIPG runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 2 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SHANGHAI SIPG go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2022, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Meizhou Kejia's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Meizhou Kejia
1
Draws
7
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 8 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 0, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 2-4 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 62%, SHANGHAI SIPG 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Meizhou Kejia) and 56% (SHANGHAI SIPG). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Meizhou Kejia's recent matches and 47% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 56% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Meizhou Kejia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Meizhou Kejia 1-2 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 0.71 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.47 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.60 / defence 0.98 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.80 / defence 0.76, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 8% | Draw 16% | SHANGHAI SIPG 76%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 76%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 56%, SHANGHAI SIPG 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.