Meizhou Kejia 0-0 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shandong Luneng (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Meizhou Kejia face Shandong Luneng.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Meizhou Kejia welcome Shandong Luneng to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 June 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Meizhou Kejia have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Meizhou Kejia at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Meizhou Kejia are significantly better at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shandong Luneng stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shandong Luneng's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shandong Luneng are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Meizhou Kejia register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Shandong Luneng in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Meizhou Kejia, 3 for Shandong Luneng and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2023, ended 1–6 with Shandong Luneng winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Meizhou Kejia in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Shandong Luneng in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 55% versus Shandong Luneng 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 56% | Shandong Luneng 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 0.78 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.633 / defence 1.083 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.979 / defence 0.765. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.437. Meizhou Kejia's attack strength of 0.633 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shandong Luneng's defence strength of 0.765 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Meizhou Kejia games / 44 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 18% | Draw 29% | Shandong Luneng 54%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 5.56 | Draw 3.45 | Shandong Luneng 1.85. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Meizhou Kejia 70% | Shandong Luneng 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jun 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 18% | Draw 29% | Shandong Luneng 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Meizhou Kejia 0.78 / Shandong Luneng 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.633 / def 1.083 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.979 / def 0.765 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Shandong Luneng xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 14 June 2024 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng?
Meizhou Kejia 0 - 0 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 18% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 54% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng?
Record (4 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 1W | Draws 0 | Shandong Luneng 3W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Meizhou Kejia's attack at 0.63x the league average against Shandong Luneng's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-2 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
18%
5.66
29%
3.48
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.30
1.52
Shandong Luneng xG
5.66
18%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
4%
25.97
25%
4.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 15.3 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.52 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Meizhou Kejia have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 23W 14D 27L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Shandong Luneng's form line: 41W 13D 10L from 64 games, 2.12 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Shandong Luneng are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Meizhou Kejia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Meizhou Kejia have posted 1.69 PPG from 32 outings (16W 6D 10L).
On the road, Shandong Luneng have gone 14W 10D 8L from 32 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's season.
The Goals Picture
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.28 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 23W 14D 27L in their last 64 games (1.30 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 41W 13D 10L in their last 64 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.69 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Meizhou Kejia or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Meizhou Kejia have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 27 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shandong Luneng have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Aug 2023, when Shandong Luneng won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Meizhou Kejia's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Meizhou Kejia
1
Draws
6
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng?
From 8 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, Shandong Luneng have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2025, when Shandong Luneng 3-0 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 62%, Shandong Luneng 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Meizhou Kejia) and 53% (Shandong Luneng). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 59% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 53% of Shandong Luneng's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Meizhou Kejia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Meizhou Kejia and Shandong Luneng drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 0.78 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.52 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shandong Luneng landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.63 / defence 1.08 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.98 / defence 0.77, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 18% | Draw 29% | Shandong Luneng 54%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 56%, Shandong Luneng 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.66 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.