Meizhou Kejia 1-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hangzhou Greentown (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Meizhou Kejia face Hangzhou Greentown.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Meizhou Kejia host Hangzhou Greentown at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 March 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Meizhou Kejia — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Meizhou Kejia at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Meizhou Kejia are significantly better at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hangzhou Greentown are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Meizhou Kejia, 2 for Hangzhou Greentown and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Meizhou Kejia in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 54% versus Hangzhou Greentown 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 57% | Hangzhou Greentown 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.17 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.946 / defence 1.090 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.113 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.193. Data: 32 Meizhou Kejia games / 32 Hangzhou Greentown games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 31% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 44%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 70% | Hangzhou Greentown 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 31% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.17 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.946 / def 1.090 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.113 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.261 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Hangzhou Greentown xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Meizhou Kejia 1 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 31% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (4 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 0W | Draws 2 | Hangzhou Greentown 2W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Meizhou Kejia's attack rating (0.95) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
31%
3.28
26%
3.85
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.62
1.45
Hangzhou Greentown xG
3.28
31%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
7%
13.93
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.6 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.45 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 63 outings, Meizhou Kejia have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 23W 13D 27L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Hangzhou Greentown's form line: 33W 18D 12L from 63 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Hangzhou Greentown are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Meizhou Kejia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Meizhou Kejia have posted 1.71 PPG from 31 outings (16W 5D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Meizhou Kejia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 14W 12D 5L from 31 away games — 1.74 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.87 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 23W 13D 27L in their last 63 games (1.30 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 33W 18D 12L in their last 63 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Hangzhou Greentown's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.71 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Meizhou Kejia or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Meizhou Kejia have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Jul 2024, when Hangzhou Greentown won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Meizhou Kejia's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Meizhou Kejia
4
Draws
4
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 8 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 0, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 2-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Meizhou Kejia at 61%, Hangzhou Greentown at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Meizhou Kejia and 61% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 74% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 61% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hangzhou Greentown edge out Meizhou Kejia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Meizhou Kejia 1-2 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.17 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.45 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.11 / defence 0.98, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 31% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 44%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 57%, Hangzhou Greentown 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.