Hebei Zhongji 1-0 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees SHANGHAI SIPG travel to Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium to take on Hebei Zhongji. The game is scheduled for Thursday 12 August 2021, 09:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Hebei Zhongji have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hebei Zhongji at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium this season: 3W 3D 0L from 6 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Hebei Zhongji are significantly better at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SHANGHAI SIPG stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 1L across 6 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hebei Zhongji 1.50 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hebei Zhongji register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hebei Zhongji, 1 for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2021, ended 0–1 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Hebei Zhongji in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 42% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hebei Zhongji 33% | SHANGHAI SIPG 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 0.96 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.893 / defence 0.867 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.135 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.087 / away 1.314. Data: 12 Hebei Zhongji games / 12 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 24% | Draw 35% | SHANGHAI SIPG 41%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 4.17 | Draw 2.86 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Hebei Zhongji 67% | SHANGHAI SIPG 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 12 Aug 2021, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 24% | Draw 35% | SHANGHAI SIPG 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Hebei Zhongji 0.96 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.893 / def 0.867 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.135 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.087 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
1.29
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 09:30 on Thursday 12 August 2021 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Hebei Zhongji 1 - 0 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 24% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 41% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (1 meetings): Hebei Zhongji 0W | Draws 0 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1W.
What form are Hebei Zhongji and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hebei Zhongji's attack at 0.89x the league average against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Hebei Zhongji's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
24%
4.12
35%
2.87
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
2.25
1.29
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
4.12
24%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
7%
14.99
16%
6.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.6 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 1.29 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hebei Zhongji come into this having played 12 games, going 5W 4D 3L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-L. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SHANGHAI SIPG sit at 2.08 PPG from 12 outings (7W 4D 1L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hebei Zhongji's home form reads 3W 3D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Hebei Zhongji are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SHANGHAI SIPG have taken 1.50 points per game from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SHANGHAI SIPG's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hebei Zhongji come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hebei Zhongji are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.08 scored and 0.50 conceded. SHANGHAI SIPG's attacking output running into Hebei Zhongji's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Hebei Zhongji have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 58% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hebei Zhongji and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Hebei Zhongji have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 games (1.58 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 7W 4D 1L in their last 12 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hebei Zhongji at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
Hebei Zhongji's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hebei Zhongji at home: 2.00 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Hebei Zhongji or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hebei Zhongji have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 58%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hebei Zhongji and SHANGHAI SIPG runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
SHANGHAI SIPG have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Hebei Zhongji's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hebei Zhongji
0
Draws
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 4 meetings on record, Hebei Zhongji have won 1, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2022, when SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Hebei Zhongji and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hebei Zhongji at 67%, SHANGHAI SIPG at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Hebei Zhongji) and 50% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SHANGHAI SIPG in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hebei Zhongji play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Hebei Zhongji's games and 67% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Hebei Zhongji's recent games and 50% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hebei Zhongji and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Hebei Zhongji have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hebei Zhongji defy the odds to beat SHANGHAI SIPG 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hebei Zhongji beat SHANGHAI SIPG 1-0 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 0.96 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.29 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SHANGHAI SIPG landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.89 / defence 0.87 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.14 / defence 0.99, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 24% | Draw 35% | SHANGHAI SIPG 41%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Hebei Zhongji win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hebei Zhongji 33%, SHANGHAI SIPG 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.58. Form was overturned, with Hebei Zhongji winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.