Hangzhou Greentown 2-0 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Hangzhou Greentown take on Shandong Luneng.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng meet at Wuyuan River Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 June 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Hangzhou Greentown (all games): 1W 1D 0L across 2 Super League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Hangzhou Greentown have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shandong Luneng's overall Super League record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 1 for Shandong Luneng and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jun 2022, ended 0–1 with Shandong Luneng winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 0.99 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.691 / defence 0.972 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.892 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.152. Hangzhou Greentown's attack strength of 0.691 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Hangzhou Greentown games / 19 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 32% | Draw 35% | Shandong Luneng 32%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Shandong Luneng 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jun 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 32% | Draw 35% | Shandong Luneng 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 0.99 / Shandong Luneng 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.691 / def 0.972 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.892 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Shandong Luneng xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 25 June 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng?
Hangzhou Greentown 2 - 0 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 32% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng?
Record (1 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 0W | Draws 0 | Shandong Luneng 1W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-D. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 0.69x the league average against Shandong Luneng's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (0.89x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 5/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.10
35%
2.84
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
1.99
1.00
Shandong Luneng xG
3.10
32%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.00 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 0L across 2 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hangzhou Greentown by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shandong Luneng heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Shandong Luneng in 100%.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Early Season
Shandong Luneng
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 (1.00 PPG).
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 20 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 3-0 on 25 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Hangzhou Greentown
2
Draws
4
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng?
From 9 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, Shandong Luneng have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 4-1 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Shandong Luneng?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 100% of Shandong Luneng's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 50% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Shandong Luneng.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Shandong Luneng 2-0 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 0.99 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.00 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shandong Luneng landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.69 / defence 0.97 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.89 / defence 1.11, drawn from 5/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 32% | Draw 35% | Shandong Luneng 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Hangzhou Greentown win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 0%, Shandong Luneng 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Hangzhou Greentown scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Shandong Luneng managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.