Guangzhou R&F 0-3 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guangzhou R&F vs Dalian Aerbin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Guangzhou R&F welcome Dalian Aerbin to Mission Hills Football Base Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 28 June 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Guangzhou R&F have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou R&F at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Aerbin stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Guangzhou R&F) versus 1.30 (Dalian Aerbin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Guangzhou R&F register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Dalian Aerbin in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Guangzhou R&F have won 0, Dalian Aerbin 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jun 2022, ended 0–2 with Dalian Aerbin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Guangzhou R&F in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Dalian Aerbin in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou R&F 59% versus Dalian Aerbin 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou R&F 50% | Dalian Aerbin 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou R&F 1.17 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou R&F attack 0.786 / defence 1.701 | Dalian Aerbin attack 1.016 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.107. Guangzhou R&F's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Guangzhou R&F games / 20 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 22% | Draw 24% | Dalian Aerbin 54%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou R&F 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Dalian Aerbin 1.85. Dalian Aerbin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.17 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dalian Aerbin are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Guangzhou R&F 70% | Dalian Aerbin 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou R&F vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Jun 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 22% | Draw 24% | Dalian Aerbin 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Guangzhou R&F 1.17 / Dalian Aerbin 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou R&F attack 0.786 / def 1.701 | Dalian Aerbin attack 1.016 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Guangzhou R&F xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Dalian Aerbin xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou R&F vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Guangzhou R&F vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 12:30 on Tuesday 28 June 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou R&F vs Dalian Aerbin?
Guangzhou R&F 0 - 3 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Guangzhou R&F vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou R&F vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Guangzhou R&F vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou R&F vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou R&F a 22% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou R&F vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Guangzhou R&F and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou R&F vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (1 meetings): Guangzhou R&F 0W | Draws 0 | Dalian Aerbin 1W.
What form are Guangzhou R&F and Dalian Aerbin in?
Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Guangzhou R&F's attack at 0.79x the league average against Dalian Aerbin's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus Guangzhou R&F's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
22%
4.58
24%
4.09
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Guangzhou R&F xG
Total xG
3.08
1.91
Dalian Aerbin xG
4.58
22%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
15%
6.77
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
3%
31.01
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou R&F vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Guangzhou R&F and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Guangzhou R&F and 1.91 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou R&F vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Guangzhou R&F have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 7W 8D 7L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Guangzhou R&F is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dalian Aerbin's form line: 6W 2D 14L from 22 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Guangzhou R&F are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dalian Aerbin.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Guangzhou R&F have posted 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (4W 3D 4L).
On the road, Dalian Aerbin have gone 3W 1D 7L from 11 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guangzhou R&F come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Guangzhou R&F are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 0.95 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou R&F and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Guangzhou R&F have gone 7W 8D 7L in their last 22 games (1.32 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 6W 2D 14L in their last 22 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou R&F at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Guangzhou R&F's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou R&F at home: 1.36 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guangzhou R&F and Dalian Aerbin runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 June 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Guangzhou R&F
0
Draws
2
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Dalian Aerbin?
From 2 meetings on record, Guangzhou R&F have won 0, Dalian Aerbin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou R&F and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 28 June 2022, when Guangzhou R&F 0-3 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou R&F and Dalian Aerbin?
Dalian Aerbin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guangzhou R&F are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou R&F 73%, Dalian Aerbin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Guangzhou R&F and 54% for Dalian Aerbin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalian Aerbin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou R&F home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou R&F play Dalian Aerbin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Guangzhou R&F's games and 54% of Dalian Aerbin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guangzhou R&F vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Guangzhou R&F's matches and 54% of Dalian Aerbin's.
Do Guangzhou R&F and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Guangzhou R&F have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dalian Aerbin run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Guangzhou R&F.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin beat Guangzhou R&F 0-3 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou R&F 1.17 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.91 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Guangzhou R&F fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Dalian Aerbin outscored their 1.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou R&F attack 0.79 / defence 1.70 against Dalian Aerbin attack 1.02 / defence 1.07, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou R&F 22% | Draw 24% | Dalian Aerbin 54%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou R&F 50%, Dalian Aerbin 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Guangzhou R&F arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Dalian Aerbin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Guangzhou R&F (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.