Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Dalian Zhixing at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dalian Zhixing host Sichuan Jiuniu at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dalian Zhixing — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Zhixing at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sichuan Jiuniu stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Dalian Zhixing have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dalian Zhixing register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, Sichuan Jiuniu 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dalian Zhixing in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Sichuan Jiuniu in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Zhixing 52% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Zhixing 45% | Sichuan Jiuniu 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 2.09 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.992 / defence 0.911 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.784 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.404. Sichuan Jiuniu bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Dalian Zhixing's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Dalian Zhixing games / 55 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 62% | Draw 21% | Sichuan Jiuniu 17%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Sichuan Jiuniu 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Dalian Zhixing (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dalian Zhixing are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Zhixing 70% | Sichuan Jiuniu 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 62% | Draw 21% | Sichuan Jiuniu 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 56% | xG Dalian Zhixing 2.09 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.992 / def 0.911 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.784 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 62% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (3 meetings): Dalian Zhixing 1W | Draws 2 | Sichuan Jiuniu 0W.
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dalian Zhixing's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Sichuan Jiuniu's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.09. The same calculation in reverse, Sichuan Jiuniu's attack versus Dalian Zhixing's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Zhixing Win
62%
1.61
21%
4.77
17%
5.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
3.09
1.00
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
5.88
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
12%
8.07
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
2%
47.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.00 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dalian Zhixing's recent record stands at 21W 13D 22L from 56 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Dalian Zhixing is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sichuan Jiuniu, meanwhile, have gone 16W 7D 33L across 56 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dalian Zhixing on 1.36 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dalian Zhixing have managed 17W 3D 8L from 28 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Dalian Zhixing are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sichuan Jiuniu's away record stands at 4W 3D 21L across 28 trips, a 0.54 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sichuan Jiuniu's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Zhixing come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dalian Zhixing are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.23 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Blended
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Dalian Zhixing have gone 21W 13D 22L in their last 56 games (1.36 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 16W 7D 33L in their last 56 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Zhixing at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Dalian Zhixing's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Zhixing at home: 1.93 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 19 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Dalian Zhixing
2
Draws
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 3 meetings on record, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 1-1 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Zhixing 39%, Sichuan Jiuniu 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Dalian Zhixing) and 61% (Sichuan Jiuniu).
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Sichuan Jiuniu in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Zhixing play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Dalian Zhixing's recent matches and 46% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Dalian Zhixing's recent games and 61% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Dalian Zhixing have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.