Dalian Aerbin 1-1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Dalian Aerbin take on Shijiazhuang Y. J..

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Full Analysis

Dalian Sports Center plays host to Dalian Aerbin versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. in Super League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Tuesday 9 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Dalian Aerbin have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Dalian Aerbin have posted 5W 2D 3L at Dalian Sports Center — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Dalian Aerbin have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Dalian Aerbin, 2 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Dalian Aerbin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Shijiazhuang Y. J. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 54% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 55% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.17 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.998 / defence 0.891 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.103 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.173. Data: 39 Dalian Aerbin games / 39 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 33% | Draw 35% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 32%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.7 goals per game points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Aerbin 80% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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