Chengdu Better City 1-1 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chengdu Better City host Yunnan Yukun at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park in Super League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 16 April 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Chengdu Better City have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Chengdu Better City's home record at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Chengdu Better City are significantly better at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 2.22 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 0.965 / defence 0.805 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.941 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.529. Yunnan Yukun bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Chengdu Better City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Chengdu Better City games / 6 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 60% | Draw 22% | Yunnan Yukun 18%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Yunnan Yukun 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.22 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Apr 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 60% | Draw 22% | Yunnan Yukun 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG Chengdu Better City 2.22 / Yunnan Yukun 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 0.965 / def 0.805 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.941 / def 1.357 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.529 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Yunnan Yukun xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 16 April 2025 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun?
Chengdu Better City 1 - 1 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 60% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Yunnan Yukun?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Yunnan Yukun in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Chengdu Better City home split: 2.30 PPG from 10 | GF 3.10 / GA 1.00 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chengdu Better City's attack at 0.96x the league average against Yunnan Yukun's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 2.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Yunnan Yukun's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
60%
1.65
22%
4.63
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
3.38
1.16
Yunnan Yukun xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
11%
9.19
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
2%
51.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.16 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Yunnan Yukun?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Pre-Season
Yunnan Yukun
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chengdu Better City and Yunnan Yukun runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2025, when Chengdu Better City won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Yunnan Yukun specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Chengdu Better City
1
Draws
1
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Yunnan Yukun?
From 4 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 2, Yunnan Yukun have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Yunnan Yukun 1-0 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Yunnan Yukun?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Chengdu Better City and Yunnan Yukun share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 7, as Chengdu Better City and Yunnan Yukun drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 2.22 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.16 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Chengdu Better City fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 0.96 / defence 0.81 against Yunnan Yukun attack 0.94 / defence 1.36, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 60% | Draw 22% | Yunnan Yukun 18%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.