Chengdu Better City 4-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Shenzhen Ruby FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Shenzhen Ruby FC travel to Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park to take on Chengdu Better City. The game is scheduled for Monday 23 October 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Chengdu Better City — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chengdu Better City have posted 5W 2D 3L at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Super League games this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have recorded 0W 1D 9L from 10 outings — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Chengdu Better City have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chengdu Better City, 1 for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Jun 2023, ended 3–0 with Chengdu Better City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Chengdu Better City in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 50% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 48% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 2.72 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.078 / defence 0.882 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.809 / defence 1.670. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.203. Shenzhen Ruby FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.670 — this is suppressing Chengdu Better City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Chengdu Better City games / 60 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 76% | Draw 14% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 9%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.32 | Draw 7.14 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (76%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.58 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chengdu Better City 50% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Monday 23 Oct 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 76% | Draw 14% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 54% | xG Chengdu Better City 2.72 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.078 / def 0.882 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.809 / def 1.670 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.72
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
54%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 12:35 on Monday 23 October 2023 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Chengdu Better City 4 - 0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 76% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 9% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Record (3 meetings): Chengdu Better City 1W | Draws 1 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 1W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chengdu Better City's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defensive record (1.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.72. The same calculation in reverse, Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.3%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
76%
1.31
14%
7.01
9%
10.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.72
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
3.58
0.86
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
1.31
76%
Home win
7.01
14%
Draw
10.81
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
7%
15.20
Win to Nil
32%
3.08
1%
164.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.72 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 0.86 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chengdu Better City's recent record stands at 30W 19D 11L from 60 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shenzhen Ruby FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 6D 42L across 60 games — 0.70 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chengdu Better City by 1.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shenzhen Ruby FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chengdu Better City have managed 16W 10D 3L from 29 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record stands at 4W 4D 21L across 29 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 0.85 scored and 2.37 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 30W 19D 11L in their last 60 games (1.82 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 12W 6D 42L in their last 60 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.00 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Shenzhen Ruby FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chengdu Better City and Shenzhen Ruby FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chengdu Better City have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2023, when Chengdu Better City won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Shenzhen Ruby FC specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Chengdu Better City
1
Draws
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 2, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2023, when Chengdu Better City 4-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 55%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Chengdu Better City and 69% for Shenzhen Ruby FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Shenzhen Ruby FC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 52% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 69% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chengdu Better City run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 4-0 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 2.72 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.86 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Chengdu Better City beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shenzhen Ruby FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.08 / defence 0.88 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.67, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 76% | Draw 14% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 9%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 76%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 48%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.70. That form edge translated into the three points. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.