Changchun Yatai 1-1 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Changchun Yatai and Sichuan Jiuniu meet at Changchun Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at 08:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Changchun Yatai have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Changchun Sports Center Stadium, Changchun Yatai have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Changchun Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.05 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.770 / defence 1.050 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.954 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.356. Changchun Yatai's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Changchun Yatai games / 8 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 29% | Draw 27% | Sichuan Jiuniu 44%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Sichuan Jiuniu 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sichuan Jiuniu are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Changchun Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 May 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 29% | Draw 27% | Sichuan Jiuniu 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.05 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.770 / def 1.050 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.954 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 08:30 on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 29% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Sichuan Jiuniu?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Changchun Yatai home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 0.77x the league average against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.95x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
29%
3.45
27%
3.68
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.41
1.36
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
7%
13.42
15%
6.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.36 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Pre-Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 4 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Sichuan Jiuniu have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Changchun Yatai and Sichuan Jiuniu share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai and Sichuan Jiuniu finished level at 1-1 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.05 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.36 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.77 / defence 1.05 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.95 / defence 1.00, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 29% | Draw 27% | Sichuan Jiuniu 44%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.