Changchun Yatai 1-1 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Changchun's People Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus Nantong Zhiyun in Super League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Friday 4 August 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Current Form
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai at Changchun's People Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Changchun's People Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Nantong Zhiyun have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantong Zhiyun's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 5L across 9 road games this term (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Changchun Yatai, 0.80 for Nantong Zhiyun — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Nantong Zhiyun in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Changchun Yatai 1W, Nantong Zhiyun 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 1–0 with Changchun Yatai winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Nantong Zhiyun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Changchun Yatai 63% and Nantong Zhiyun 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 58% | Nantong Zhiyun 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.56 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.122 / defence 1.172 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.709 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.213. Data: 53 Changchun Yatai games / 19 Nantong Zhiyun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 48% | Draw 30% | Nantong Zhiyun 22%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Nantong Zhiyun 4.55. Changchun Yatai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Changchun Yatai at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 70% | Nantong Zhiyun 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 48% | Draw 30% | Nantong Zhiyun 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.56 / Nantong Zhiyun 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.122 / def 1.172 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.709 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Nantong Zhiyun xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 4 August 2023 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 48% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun?
Record (1 meetings): Changchun Yatai 1W | Draws 0 | Nantong Zhiyun 0W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 1.12x the league average against Nantong Zhiyun's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nantong Zhiyun's attack (0.71x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 53/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
48%
2.09
30%
3.34
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.57
1.01
Nantong Zhiyun xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
5%
21.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.01 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 19 games, going 7W 6D 6L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-D. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nantong Zhiyun sit at 0.74 PPG from 19 outings (2W 8D 9L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Nantong Zhiyun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Changchun Yatai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Nantong Zhiyun — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 4W 3D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Nantong Zhiyun have taken 0.44 points per game from 9 outings (0W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Nantong Zhiyun are on 0.79 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Nantong Zhiyun in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 7W 6D 6L in their last 19 games (1.42 PPG), while Nantong Zhiyun have gone 2W 8D 9L in their last 19 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Nantong Zhiyun away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.67 PPG; Nantong Zhiyun away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Changchun Yatai go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nantong Zhiyun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
0
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 4 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 3, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2024, when Changchun Yatai 3-2 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Changchun Yatai, 67% for Nantong Zhiyun — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Changchun Yatai) and 22% (Nantong Zhiyun).
On the defensive side: Nantong Zhiyun in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Nantong Zhiyun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Changchun Yatai's games and 67% of Nantong Zhiyun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 22% of Nantong Zhiyun's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Nantong Zhiyun in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.56 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.01 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.12 / defence 1.17 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.71 / defence 0.93, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 48% | Draw 30% | Nantong Zhiyun 22%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 58%, Nantong Zhiyun 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Changchun Yatai arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.