Beijing Guoan 5-1 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beijing Guoan (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Beijing Guoan face Meizhou Kejia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Beijing Guoan welcome Meizhou Kejia to Workers' Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 6W 1D 3L at Workers' Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Meizhou Kejia have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Meizhou Kejia's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Beijing Guoan, 1 for Meizhou Kejia and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Jun 2025, ended 4–0 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Meizhou Kejia in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 64% and Meizhou Kejia 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Beijing Guoan 66% | Meizhou Kejia 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.66 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.209 / defence 1.225 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.760 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.774 / away 1.436. Meizhou Kejia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Beijing Guoan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Beijing Guoan games / 59 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 66% | Draw 17% | Meizhou Kejia 17%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.52 | Draw 5.88 | Meizhou Kejia 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (66%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 4.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.66 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.00 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 80% | Meizhou Kejia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 66% | Draw 17% | Meizhou Kejia 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 69% | xG Beijing Guoan 2.66 / Meizhou Kejia 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.209 / def 1.225 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.760 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.774 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.66
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Meizhou Kejia xG
69%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Beijing Guoan 5 - 1 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 66% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 17% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (7 meetings): Beijing Guoan 3W | Draws 3 | Meizhou Kejia 1W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Meizhou Kejia's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.66. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.7%), 1-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
66%
1.52
17%
5.87
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
1 – 1
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.66
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
4.00
1.34
Meizhou Kejia xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.87
17%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
7%
14.32
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
1%
82.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 2.66 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.34 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 4.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beijing Guoan come into this having played 59 games, going 32W 14D 13L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Meizhou Kejia sit at 0.81 PPG from 59 outings (11W 15D 33L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.05 PPG clear of Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Beijing Guoan's home form reads 19W 5D 5L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Meizhou Kejia have taken 0.59 points per game from 29 outings (3W 8D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beijing Guoan are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.08 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Meizhou Kejia in 61%.
Last 59 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 32W 14D 13L in their last 59 games (1.86 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 11W 15D 33L in their last 59 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.14 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jun 2025, when Beijing Guoan won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Meizhou Kejia specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
3
Draws
1
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Beijing Guoan 5-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 69%, Meizhou Kejia 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Beijing Guoan and 59% for Meizhou Kejia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Meizhou Kejia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Meizhou Kejia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Beijing Guoan's games and 55% of Meizhou Kejia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 59% of Meizhou Kejia's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Meizhou Kejia 5-1 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.66 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.34 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.21 / defence 1.23 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.76 / defence 1.24, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 66% | Draw 17% | Meizhou Kejia 17%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 66%, Meizhou Kejia 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.62 average — above their attacking norm. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.