Beijing Guoan 1-1 Guangzhou R&F – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou R&F meet at Huadu Stadium in Super League, Championship Round - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 January 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Beijing Guoan's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 6W 4D 0L at Huadu Stadium — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Beijing Guoan are significantly better at Huadu Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Guangzhou R&F have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Guangzhou R&F have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Beijing Guoan lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 0–5 with Guangzhou R&F winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Beijing Guoan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Guangzhou R&F goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 55% versus Guangzhou R&F 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 50% | Guangzhou R&F 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.38 xG and Guangzhou R&F 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.093 / defence 1.091 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.792 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Beijing Guoan games / 14 Guangzhou R&F games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 41% | Draw 31% | Guangzhou R&F 28%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Guangzhou R&F 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 70% | Guangzhou R&F 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 7 | Venue: Huadu Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jan 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 41% | Draw 31% | Guangzhou R&F 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.38 / Guangzhou R&F 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.093 / def 1.091 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.792 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Guangzhou R&F xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 1 January 2022 at Huadu Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F?
Beijing Guoan 1 - 1 Guangzhou R&F.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F being played?
The match is being played at Huadu Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F is a Championship Round - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 41% chance of winning, Guangzhou R&F a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou R&F will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou R&F?
Record (1 meetings): Beijing Guoan 0W | Draws 0 | Guangzhou R&F 1W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou R&F in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Guangzhou R&F's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Guangzhou R&F's attack (0.79x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
41%
2.45
31%
3.21
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.49
1.11
Guangzhou R&F xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
7%
14.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou R&F expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.11 for Guangzhou R&F, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beijing Guoan come into this having played 20 games, going 8W 5D 7L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guangzhou R&F sit at 1.25 PPG from 20 outings (6W 7D 7L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Guangzhou R&F is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Beijing Guoan against 1.25 for Guangzhou R&F. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Beijing Guoan's home form reads 6W 4D 0L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Beijing Guoan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Guangzhou R&F have taken 1.30 points per game from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou R&F are on 1.45 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou R&F in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 8W 5D 7L in their last 20 games (1.45 PPG), while Guangzhou R&F have gone 6W 7D 7L in their last 20 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Guangzhou R&F away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.20 PPG; Guangzhou R&F away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Guangzhou R&F been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Guangzhou R&F in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Beijing Guoan have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guangzhou R&F won 5-0 on 19 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guangzhou R&F — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Beijing Guoan
1
Draws
1
Guangzhou R&F
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou R&F?
From 4 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 2, Guangzhou R&F have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou R&F last play each other?
They last met on 21 November 2022, when Guangzhou R&F 1-2 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou R&F?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beijing Guoan see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Guangzhou R&F are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 70%, Guangzhou R&F 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Beijing Guoan) and 30% (Guangzhou R&F).
On the defensive side: Guangzhou R&F in 40%; Guangzhou R&F in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Guangzhou R&F away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Guangzhou R&F?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Beijing Guoan's games and 40% of Guangzhou R&F's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 30% of Guangzhou R&F's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou R&F tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Guangzhou R&F in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou R&F share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Huadu Stadium, Championship Round - 7, as Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou R&F drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.38 xG and Guangzhou R&F 1.11 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.09 / defence 1.09 against Guangzhou R&F attack 0.79 / defence 1.09, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 41% | Draw 31% | Guangzhou R&F 28%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 50%, Guangzhou R&F 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.45 PPG, Guangzhou R&F 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.