Universidad de Chile 2-1 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Universidad de Chile take on Union Espanola.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Teniente plays host to Universidad de Chile versus Union Espanola in Primera División, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Tuesday 20 April 2021 at 01:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 0.97 xG and Union Espanola 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 0.958 / defence 1.142 | Union Espanola attack 0.712 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 0.880 / away 1.087. Data: 2 Universidad de Chile games / 3 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 32% | Draw 40% | Union Espanola 28%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 3.12 | Draw 2.50 | Union Espanola 3.57. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Apr 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 32% | Draw 40% | Union Espanola 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 41% | xG Universidad de Chile 0.97 / Union Espanola 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 0.958 / def 1.142 | Union Espanola attack 0.712 / def 1.152 | league avg home 0.880 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Union Espanola xG
41%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Union Espanola kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Union Espanola kicked off at 01:30 on Tuesday 20 April 2021 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Union Espanola?
Universidad de Chile 2 - 1 Union Espanola.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Union Espanola part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 32% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 28% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Universidad de Chile vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Union Espanola?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Universidad de Chile and Union Espanola in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Universidad de Chile's attack rating (0.96) and Union Espanola's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Espanola's attack (0.71x) against Universidad de Chile's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 2/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.11
40%
2.48
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
1.86
0.89
Union Espanola xG
3.11
32%
Home win
2.48
40%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
10%
9.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 13.8 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 0.89 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Pre-Season
Union Espanola
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 9 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Universidad de Chile go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Espanola won 3-0 on 17 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Universidad de Chile have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Universidad de Chile
1
Draws
1
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Union Espanola?
From 10 meetings on record, Universidad de Chile have won 8, Union Espanola have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2025, when Universidad de Chile 4-1 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Chile and Union Espanola?
Universidad de Chile have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Universidad de Chile edge out Union Espanola 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Chile beat Union Espanola 2-1 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 0.97 xG and Union Espanola 0.89 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Universidad de Chile beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 0.96 / defence 1.14 against Union Espanola attack 0.71 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 32% | Draw 40% | Union Espanola 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Universidad de Chile win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.