Universidad de Chile 1-1 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Coquimbo Unido travel to Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos to take on Universidad de Chile. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 April 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Universidad de Chile have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Universidad de Chile's home record at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Coquimbo Unido — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Coquimbo Unido's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Universidad de Chile's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Universidad de Chile register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Coquimbo Unido in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Coquimbo Unido, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Universidad de Chile.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
It is worth noting that Coquimbo Unido have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Universidad de Chile in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Universidad de Chile 63% and Coquimbo Unido 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Universidad de Chile 57% | Coquimbo Unido 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.30 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 0.983 / defence 0.916 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.898 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.224. Data: 37 Universidad de Chile games / 37 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 43% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 29%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Coquimbo Unido 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Universidad de Chile as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Coquimbo Unido (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Universidad de Chile 60% | Coquimbo Unido 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 43% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Universidad de Chile 1.30 / Coquimbo Unido 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 0.983 / def 0.916 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.898 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Coquimbo Unido xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido?
Universidad de Chile 1 - 1 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 43% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (4 meetings): Universidad de Chile 0W | Draws 1 | Coquimbo Unido 3W.
What form are Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido in?
Universidad de Chile (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Universidad de Chile's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Coquimbo Unido's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Universidad de Chile's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.59
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
2.31
1.01
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 1.01 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Universidad de Chile come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 13D 28L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Coquimbo Unido sit at 1.28 PPG from 60 outings (22W 11D 27L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Universidad de Chile on 1.17 PPG, Coquimbo Unido on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Universidad de Chile's home form reads 10W 9D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Coquimbo Unido have taken 1.00 points per game from 30 outings (8W 6D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
Universidad de Chile are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.28 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Universidad de Chile have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Coquimbo Unido in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Universidad de Chile have gone 19W 13D 28L in their last 60 games (1.17 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 22W 11D 27L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Universidad de Chile at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Universidad de Chile's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Universidad de Chile at home: 1.30 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Universidad de Chile's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Universidad de Chile
3
Draws
4
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Universidad de Chile have won 2, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 0-1 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Universidad de Chile are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Universidad de Chile 57%, Coquimbo Unido 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Universidad de Chile) and 53% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Universidad de Chile have failed to score in 27% of games; Coquimbo Unido in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Universidad de Chile play Coquimbo Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Universidad de Chile's games and 60% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Universidad de Chile's recent games and 53% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Universidad de Chile have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Regular Season - 8, as Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido drew 1-1 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.30 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.01 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 0.98 / defence 0.92 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.90 / defence 0.96, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 43% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 29%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 57%, Coquimbo Unido 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Universidad de Chile 1.17 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.