Union La Calera 2-1 Nublense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Nublense at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Union La Calera face Nublense.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Union La Calera welcome Nublense to Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in Primera División (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 5 May 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Union La Calera stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union La Calera's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Nublense have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Nublense's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union La Calera 1.40 PPG, Nublense 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Union La Calera's last 10 home games and Nublense's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Union La Calera have won 0, Nublense 0, with 4 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Aug 2023, ended Union La Calera 1–1 Nublense — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Union La Calera trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Nublense trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union La Calera 60% and Nublense 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 50% | Nublense 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Union La Calera surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Nublense have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.32 xG and Nublense 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.712 / defence 1.156 | Nublense attack 1.187 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.304. Union La Calera's attack rating of 0.712 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.32. Nublense's defence rating of 1.261 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Union La Calera's projected output up. Data: built from Union La Calera's last 40 games and Nublense's last 40.
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 28% | Draw 23% | Nublense 49%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 3.53 | Draw 4.32 | Nublense 2.06. Nublense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.32 / 1.79) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nublense are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nublense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Union La Calera's last 10 home games and Nublense's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union La Calera 70% (last 10 home games) | Nublense 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, matchday 11 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 28% | Draw 23% | Nublense 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Union La Calera 1.32 / Nublense 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.712 / def 1.156 | Nublense attack 1.187 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Nublense (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Nublense xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union La Calera vs Nublense FAQs
What time does Union La Calera vs Nublense kick off?
Union La Calera vs Nublense kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Union La Calera 2 - 1 Nublense.
Where is Union La Calera vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Nublense part of?
Union La Calera vs Nublense is a Primera División fixture (matchday 11) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 28% chance of winning, Nublense a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Union La Calera and Nublense will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union La Calera vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union La Calera's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Nublense's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Nublense's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union La Calera's last 40 games and Nublense's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
28%
3.53
23%
4.32
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
3.11
1.79
Nublense xG
3.53
28%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
17%
5.98
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
5%
21.15
13%
7.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union La Calera vs Nublense Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.79 for Nublense, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union La Calera's recent record stands at 19W 23D 18L from 60 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Nublense, meanwhile, have gone 23W 18D 19L across 60 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.33 PPG, Nublense on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union La Calera have managed 11W 12D 7L from their last 30 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nublense's away record stands at 10W 10D 10L across their last 30 away games, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Union La Calera are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.32 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union La Calera have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Nublense in 63%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
Nublense
Current Season
Union La Calera (Home) vs Nublense (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union La Calera
Current Season
Nublense
Current Season
❓ Union La Calera vs Nublense Form FAQs
What form are Union La Calera and Nublense in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 19W 23D 18L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Nublense have gone 23W 18D 19L in their last 60 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Nublense away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.50 PPG; Nublense away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Nublense have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2025, when Union La Calera won Union La Calera 3-0 Nublense.
Union La Calera's record when hosting Nublense specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Union La Calera
5
Draws
2
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Union La Calera vs Nublense H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Nublense?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union La Calera have won 3, Nublense have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Nublense last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: Nublense 2-1 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Nublense?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 60%, Nublense 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union La Calera) and 40% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: Nublense in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union La Calera vs Nublense Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union La Calera and Nublense matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Union La Calera's games and 57% of Nublense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union La Calera and Nublense matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Union La Calera's recent games and 40% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Nublense matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 67% of Nublense's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union La Calera defy the odds to beat Nublense 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Nublense 2-1 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.32 xG and Nublense 1.79 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.71 / defence 1.16 against Nublense attack 1.19 / defence 1.26, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 28% | Draw 23% | Nublense 49%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Union La Calera win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 50%, Nublense 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.33 PPG, Nublense 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Nublense (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.