Union Espanola 3-2 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Union Espanola at 45%, yet in-form Union La Calera provide a compelling counter-argument — this Union Espanola vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 13 as Union Espanola welcome Union La Calera to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 9 May 2023 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Union Espanola have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Union Espanola's home record at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Primera División appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primera División matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Union La Calera have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Union La Calera's 2.00 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Union Espanola's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union Espanola register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Union La Calera in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Union Espanola, 2 for Union La Calera and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Union La Calera winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Union Espanola trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Union La Calera trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Espanola 63% versus Union La Calera 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Espanola 56% | Union La Calera 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 1.42 xG and Union La Calera 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 1.024 / defence 0.799 | Union La Calera attack 1.026 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.254. Union Espanola's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Union Espanola games / 42 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 45% | Draw 28% | Union La Calera 27%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Union La Calera 3.70. Union Espanola hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union Espanola as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union La Calera (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Espanola offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Union Espanola 70% | Union La Calera 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 May 2023, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 45% | Draw 28% | Union La Calera 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Union Espanola 1.42 / Union La Calera 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 1.024 / def 0.799 | Union La Calera attack 1.026 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Union La Calera xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Espanola vs Union La Calera kick off?
Union Espanola vs Union La Calera kicked off at 23:00 on Tuesday 9 May 2023 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs Union La Calera?
Union Espanola 3 - 2 Union La Calera.
Where is Union Espanola vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs Union La Calera part of?
Union Espanola vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 45% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Union Espanola and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Union Espanola vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Union La Calera?
Record (4 meetings): Union Espanola 1W | Draws 1 | Union La Calera 2W.
What form are Union Espanola and Union La Calera in?
Union Espanola (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Union La Calera (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Union Espanola's attack rating (1.02) and Union La Calera's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Union Espanola's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
45%
2.21
28%
3.59
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
2.45
1.03
Union La Calera xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
6%
15.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Union Espanola and 1.03 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Union Espanola have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 25W 10D 27L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Union La Calera's form line: 24W 18D 20L from 62 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Espanola on 1.37 PPG, Union La Calera on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Union Espanola have posted 1.52 PPG from 31 outings (13W 8D 10L).
On the road, Union La Calera have gone 11W 9D 11L from 31 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Union Espanola are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.24 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Espanola have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Current Season
Union La Calera
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Espanola and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Union Espanola have gone 25W 10D 27L in their last 62 games (1.37 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 24W 18D 20L in their last 62 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Espanola at home or Union La Calera away?
Union Espanola's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Espanola at home: 1.52 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Union Espanola or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Espanola have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union Espanola and Union La Calera runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 19 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Nov 2023, when Union La Calera won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Espanola's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union Espanola
1
Draws
5
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Espanola have won 4, Union La Calera have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2025, when Union Espanola 3-1 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union Espanola and Union La Calera?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Espanola 74%, Union La Calera 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Union Espanola) and 58% (Union La Calera). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union La Calera in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Espanola play Union La Calera?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Union Espanola's games and 55% of Union La Calera's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Espanola vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Union Espanola's matches and 58% of Union La Calera's.
Do Union Espanola and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Union Espanola have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Espanola edge out Union La Calera 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Espanola beat Union La Calera 3-2 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.42 xG and Union La Calera 1.03 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Union Espanola beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union La Calera outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 1.02 / defence 0.80 against Union La Calera attack 1.03 / defence 0.98, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 45% | Draw 28% | Union La Calera 27%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 56%, Union La Calera 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Espanola's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Union La Calera's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Espanola 1.37 PPG, Union La Calera 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Espanola win broke the near-deadlock. Union Espanola (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. Union La Calera (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.