Union Espanola 4-3 Deportes Iquique – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Espanola at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Union Espanola face Deportes Iquique.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Espanola and Deportes Iquique meet at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK in Primera División (matchday 15). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 June 2024 at 23:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Union Espanola have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union Espanola's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Union Espanola are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 2.78 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 1.433 / defence 1.124 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.063 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.430. Union Espanola carry an above-average attack rating of 1.433 — their 2.78 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Deportes Iquique's defence rating of 1.302 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Union Espanola's projected output up. Data: built from Union Espanola's last 43 games and Deportes Iquique's last 14.
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 60% | Draw 17% | Deportes Iquique 22%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 1.66 | Draw 5.75 | Deportes Iquique 4.46. The model has a clear lean to Union Espanola (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS Yes probability 77% | Total xG 4.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% — both xG figures (2.78 / 1.71) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Espanola at 60% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.48 combined xG gives a 82% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs Deportes Iquique | Competition: Primera División, matchday 15 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Saturday 1 June 2024 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 60% | Draw 17% | Deportes Iquique 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% (Under 18%) | BTTS Yes 77% (No 23%) | xG Union Espanola 2.78 / Deportes Iquique 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 1.433 / def 1.124 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.063 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.78
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Deportes Iquique xG
77%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Espanola vs Deportes Iquique FAQs
What time does Union Espanola vs Deportes Iquique kick off?
Union Espanola vs Deportes Iquique kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Saturday 1 June 2024 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs Deportes Iquique?
Union Espanola 4 - 3 Deportes Iquique.
Where is Union Espanola vs Deportes Iquique being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs Deportes Iquique part of?
Union Espanola vs Deportes Iquique is a Primera División fixture (matchday 15) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs Deportes Iquique?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 60% chance of winning, Deportes Iquique a 22% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs Deportes Iquique?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Union Espanola and Deportes Iquique will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union Espanola vs Deportes Iquique have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Union Espanola's attack rating (1.43) and Deportes Iquique's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 2.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Deportes Iquique's attack (1.06x) against Union Espanola's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from Union Espanola's last 43 games and Deportes Iquique's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.4%. Close behind: 3-1 (6.9%), 2-2 (6.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
60%
1.66
17%
5.75
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
2 – 2
6.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.78
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
4.48
1.71
Deportes Iquique xG
1.66
60%
Home win
5.75
17%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
66%
Over 3.5
1.52
34%
Under 3.5
2.94
47%
Over 4.5
2.13
53%
Under 4.5
1.89
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.30
23%
BTTS No
4.31
Clean Sheet
18%
5.52
6%
16.05
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
1%
71.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Espanola vs Deportes Iquique Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs Deportes Iquique?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.4%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and Deportes Iquique expected to score?
The model projects 2.78 expected goals for Union Espanola and 1.71 for Deportes Iquique, a combined total of 4.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs Deportes Iquique?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Pre-Season
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Union Espanola (Home) vs Deportes Iquique (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Espanola
Pre-Season
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Union Espanola and Deportes Iquique, the earliest from June 2024. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent in our data was on 15 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Espanola won Deportes Iquique 0-4 Union Espanola on 16 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Espanola have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Deportes Iquique — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Union Espanola
1
Draws
1
Deportes Iquique
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Espanola vs Deportes Iquique H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Deportes Iquique?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Espanola have won 2, Deportes Iquique have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and Deportes Iquique last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2025: Union Espanola 2-2 Deportes Iquique.
Who has won more matches between Union Espanola and Deportes Iquique?
Union Espanola have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / Deportes Iquique away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Union Espanola edge out Deportes Iquique 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Espanola beat Deportes Iquique 4-3 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 15, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 2.78 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.71 xG, a combined 4.48. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Union Espanola beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Deportes Iquique outscored their 1.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 1.43 / defence 1.12 against Deportes Iquique attack 1.06 / defence 1.30, drawn from 43/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 60% | Draw 17% | Deportes Iquique 22%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 66% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.