U. Catolica 2-0 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours U. Catolica (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as U. Catolica face Union La Calera.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Union La Calera make the trip to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK to face U. Catolica in Primera División, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 July 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
U. Catolica (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for U. Catolica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
U. Catolica's home record at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK this season.
Union La Calera's overall Primera División record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Union La Calera have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward U. Catolica. A 1.50 PPG lead over Union La Calera (2.20 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — U. Catolica lead 3W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
U. Catolica — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Union La Calera — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — U. Catolica 56% and Union La Calera 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 60% | Union La Calera 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.47 xG and Union La Calera 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 1.092 / defence 0.971 | Union La Calera attack 0.837 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.369. Data: 45 U. Catolica games / 45 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 45% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 29%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Union La Calera 3.45. U. Catolica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, U. Catolica are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on U. Catolica if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: U. Catolica 50% | Union La Calera 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jul 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 45% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG U. Catolica 1.47 / Union La Calera 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 1.092 / def 0.971 | Union La Calera attack 0.837 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Union La Calera xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Union La Calera kick off?
U. Catolica vs Union La Calera kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Union La Calera?
U. Catolica 2 - 0 Union La Calera.
Where is U. Catolica vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Union La Calera part of?
U. Catolica vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 45% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both U. Catolica and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Union La Calera?
Record (6 meetings): U. Catolica 3W | Draws 2 | Union La Calera 1W.
What form are U. Catolica and Union La Calera in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Union La Calera (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from U. Catolica's attack rating (1.09) and Union La Calera's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union La Calera's attack (0.84x) against U. Catolica's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.84
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
2.58
1.11
Union La Calera xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
7%
15.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for U. Catolica and 1.11 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
U. Catolica come into this having played 45 games, going 19W 12D 14L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for U. Catolica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union La Calera sit at 1.18 PPG from 45 outings (13W 14D 18L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for U. Catolica against 1.18 for Union La Calera. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
U. Catolica's home form reads 8W 6D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Union La Calera have taken 1.32 points per game from 22 outings (7W 8D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
U. Catolica are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.22 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union La Calera in 64%.
Last 45 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Blended
Union La Calera
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are U. Catolica and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 19W 12D 14L in their last 45 games (1.53 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 13W 14D 18L in their last 45 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Union La Calera away?
U. Catolica's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 1.36 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union La Calera won 4-0 on 23 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, U. Catolica have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union La Calera — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
U. Catolica
3
Draws
2
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 5, Union La Calera have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when U. Catolica 1-2 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between U. Catolica and Union La Calera?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 59%, Union La Calera 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (U. Catolica) and 46% (Union La Calera).
On the defensive side: U. Catolica have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when U. Catolica play Union La Calera?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of U. Catolica's games and 64% of Union La Calera's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is U. Catolica vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of U. Catolica's recent games and 46% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do U. Catolica and Union La Calera tend to score early?
U. Catolica have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
U. Catolica cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Union La Calera.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Union La Calera 2-0 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.47 xG and Union La Calera 1.11 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Union La Calera landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.09 / defence 0.97 against Union La Calera attack 0.84 / defence 0.93, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 45% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 29%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 60%, Union La Calera 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Union La Calera's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — U. Catolica 1.53 PPG, Union La Calera 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the U. Catolica win broke the near-deadlock. U. Catolica (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.