Santiago Wanderers 1-2 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 44% as Santiago Wanderers take on Union La Calera.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Santiago Wanderers host Union La Calera at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander in Primera División, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 April 2021 at 22:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santiago Wanderers 0.77 xG and Union La Calera 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santiago Wanderers attack 0.970 / defence 1.150 | Union La Calera attack 0.732 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 0.764 / away 0.906. Data: 1 Santiago Wanderers games / 2 Union La Calera games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Santiago Wanderers 28% | Draw 44% | Union La Calera 28%. Fair-value odds: Santiago Wanderers 3.57 | Draw 2.27 | Union La Calera 3.57. The draw (44%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.53. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.53 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Union La Calera's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 44% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 20% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santiago Wanderers vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Apr 2021, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santiago Wanderers 28% | Draw 44% | Union La Calera 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 32% | xG Santiago Wanderers 0.77 / Union La Calera 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Santiago Wanderers attack 0.970 / def 1.150 | Union La Calera attack 0.732 / def 1.036 | league avg home 0.764 / away 0.906 • Poisson stance: Draw (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Santiago Wanderers xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Union La Calera xG
32%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santiago Wanderers vs Union La Calera kick off?
Santiago Wanderers vs Union La Calera kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 11 April 2021 at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander.
What was the final score in Santiago Wanderers vs Union La Calera?
Santiago Wanderers 1 - 2 Union La Calera.
Where is Santiago Wanderers vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander.
What competition is Santiago Wanderers vs Union La Calera part of?
Santiago Wanderers vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Santiago Wanderers vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Santiago Wanderers a 28% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 28% chance, and a 44% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Santiago Wanderers vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Santiago Wanderers and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Santiago Wanderers vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santiago Wanderers and Union La Calera?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Santiago Wanderers and Union La Calera in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Santiago Wanderers's attack rating (0.97) and Union La Calera's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Santiago Wanderers's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 23.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.55
44%
2.28
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Santiago Wanderers xG
Total xG
1.53
0.76
Union La Calera xG
3.55
28%
Home win
2.28
44%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.09
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
46%
2.15
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
13%
7.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.7 | 16.5 | 6.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.7 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santiago Wanderers vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.3%.
How many goals are Santiago Wanderers and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Santiago Wanderers and 0.76 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 1.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Santiago Wanderers vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santiago Wanderers
Pre-Season
Union La Calera
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Santiago Wanderers and Union La Calera runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Santiago Wanderers
0
Draws
1
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santiago Wanderers and Union La Calera?
From 2 meetings on record, Santiago Wanderers have won 1, Union La Calera have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Santiago Wanderers and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 8 September 2021, when Union La Calera 0-1 Santiago Wanderers.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santiago Wanderers home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Union La Calera defy the odds to beat Santiago Wanderers 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Santiago Wanderers 1-2 at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santiago Wanderers 0.77 xG and Union La Calera 0.76 xG, a combined 1.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Union La Calera outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santiago Wanderers attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Union La Calera attack 0.73 / defence 1.04, drawn from 1/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Santiago Wanderers 28% | Draw 44% | Union La Calera 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 44%. The actual Union La Calera win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.