Palestino 3-2 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palestino at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palestino vs Union Espanola fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palestino host Union Espanola at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna in Primera División, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 August 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Palestino have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Palestino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palestino's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 games at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
Union Espanola — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Espanola, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Espanola away from home this season: 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Palestino at 1.40 PPG versus Union Espanola's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Palestino trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games).
Union Espanola trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palestino 50% versus Union Espanola 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palestino 42% | Union Espanola 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 1.19 xG and Union Espanola 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 0.974 / defence 1.077 | Union Espanola attack 0.882 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 0.995 / away 1.009. Union Espanola bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Palestino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Palestino games / 12 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palestino 38% | Draw 36% | Union Espanola 26%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 2.63 | Draw 2.78 | Union Espanola 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Palestino as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palestino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Palestino 33% | Union Espanola 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 38% | Draw 36% | Union Espanola 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Palestino 1.19 / Union Espanola 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 0.974 / def 1.077 | Union Espanola attack 0.882 / def 1.227 | league avg home 0.995 / away 1.009 • Poisson stance: Palestino (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Union Espanola xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palestino vs Union Espanola kick off?
Palestino vs Union Espanola kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Union Espanola?
Palestino 3 - 2 Union Espanola.
Where is Palestino vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Union Espanola part of?
Palestino vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 38% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 26% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Palestino and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Palestino vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Union Espanola?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palestino and Union Espanola in?
Palestino (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Union Espanola (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Palestino's attack rating (0.97) and Union Espanola's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union Espanola's attack versus Palestino's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
38%
2.63
36%
2.79
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Palestino xG
Total xG
2.15
0.96
Union Espanola xG
2.63
38%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
8%
12.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 11.2 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Palestino and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Palestino and 0.96 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palestino come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 2D 6L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Palestino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Espanola sit at 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (5W 3D 4L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Union Espanola is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palestino on 1.17 PPG, Union Espanola on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Palestino's home form reads 2W 2D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Espanola have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Palestino are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Espanola in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Blended
Union Espanola
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palestino and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Palestino have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palestino at home or Union Espanola away?
Palestino's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palestino at home: 1.33 PPG; Union Espanola away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Palestino or Union Espanola been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Union Espanola in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 27 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palestino go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2025, when Palestino won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palestino's record when hosting Union Espanola specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Palestino
1
Draws
2
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Union Espanola?
From 10 meetings on record, Palestino have won 7, Union Espanola have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2025, when Palestino 1-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Palestino and Union Espanola?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palestino see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Union Espanola see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palestino 33%, Union Espanola 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Palestino and 50% for Union Espanola.
On the defensive side: Palestino keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Palestino have failed to score in 33% of games; Union Espanola in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palestino play Union Espanola?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Palestino's recent matches and 50% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palestino vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Palestino's recent games and 50% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Palestino edge out Union Espanola 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palestino beat Union Espanola 3-2 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.19 xG and Union Espanola 0.96 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Palestino beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union Espanola outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 0.97 / defence 1.08 against Union Espanola attack 0.88 / defence 1.23, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 38% | Draw 36% | Union Espanola 26%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 42%, Union Espanola 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palestino's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Union Espanola's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palestino 1.17 PPG, Union Espanola 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palestino win broke the near-deadlock. Palestino (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Espanola (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.