Palestino 3-1 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palestino at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palestino vs Deportes Copiapo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Deportes Copiapo travel to Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna to take on Palestino. The game is scheduled for Friday 3 May 2024, 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Palestino have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Palestino's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Deportes Copiapo stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Deportes Copiapo's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Palestino) versus 1.60 (Deportes Copiapo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Palestino, 0 for Deportes Copiapo and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 2–0 with Palestino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Palestino trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Deportes Copiapo trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palestino 57% versus Deportes Copiapo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palestino 50% | Deportes Copiapo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 2.32 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 1.159 / defence 0.822 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.909 / defence 1.396. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.285. Deportes Copiapo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.396 — this is suppressing Palestino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Palestino games / 40 Deportes Copiapo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palestino 68% | Draw 18% | Deportes Copiapo 14%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Deportes Copiapo 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Palestino (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 64% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates Palestino as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Palestino 40% | Deportes Copiapo 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Deportes Copiapo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 68% | Draw 18% | Deportes Copiapo 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 56% | xG Palestino 2.32 / Deportes Copiapo 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 1.159 / def 0.822 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.909 / def 1.396 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Palestino (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Deportes Copiapo xG
56%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palestino vs Deportes Copiapo kick off?
Palestino vs Deportes Copiapo kicked off at 20:30 on Friday 3 May 2024 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Deportes Copiapo?
Palestino 3 - 1 Deportes Copiapo.
Where is Palestino vs Deportes Copiapo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Deportes Copiapo part of?
Palestino vs Deportes Copiapo is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 68% chance of winning, Deportes Copiapo a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Palestino and Deportes Copiapo will score (BTTS).
Will Palestino vs Deportes Copiapo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Deportes Copiapo?
Record (2 meetings): Palestino 2W | Draws 0 | Deportes Copiapo 0W.
What form are Palestino and Deportes Copiapo in?
Palestino (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Deportes Copiapo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Palestino's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Deportes Copiapo's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.32. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Copiapo's attack versus Palestino's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
68%
1.47
18%
5.52
14%
7.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Palestino xG
Total xG
3.28
0.96
Deportes Copiapo xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.52
18%
Draw
7.12
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
10%
10.22
Win to Nil
26%
3.85
1%
72.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Palestino and Deportes Copiapo expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Palestino and 0.96 for Deportes Copiapo, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Deportes Copiapo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Palestino have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 14W 7D 9L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Deportes Copiapo's form line: 8W 10D 12L from 30 games, 1.13 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Palestino are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Deportes Copiapo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Palestino have posted 1.80 PPG from 15 outings (8W 3D 4L).
On the road, Deportes Copiapo have gone 2W 5D 8L from 15 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palestino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palestino are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Deportes Copiapo are on 1.07 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Current Season
Deportes Copiapo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palestino and Deportes Copiapo in coming into this match?
Palestino have gone 14W 7D 9L in their last 30 games (1.63 PPG), while Deportes Copiapo have gone 8W 10D 12L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palestino at home or Deportes Copiapo away?
Palestino's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palestino at home: 1.80 PPG; Deportes Copiapo away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Palestino or Deportes Copiapo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Deportes Copiapo in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palestino and Deportes Copiapo runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palestino's record when hosting Deportes Copiapo specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Palestino
0
Draws
1
Deportes Copiapo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Deportes Copiapo?
From 4 meetings on record, Palestino have won 3, Deportes Copiapo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Deportes Copiapo last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2024, when Deportes Copiapo 2-1 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Palestino and Deportes Copiapo?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palestino see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palestino 53%, Deportes Copiapo 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Palestino) and 33% (Deportes Copiapo).
On the defensive side: Palestino keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Deportes Copiapo in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Deportes Copiapo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palestino play Deportes Copiapo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Palestino's recent matches and 40% of Deportes Copiapo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palestino vs Deportes Copiapo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Palestino's recent games and 33% of Deportes Copiapo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palestino and Deportes Copiapo tend to score early?
Palestino have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Deportes Copiapo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palestino cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Deportes Copiapo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palestino beat Deportes Copiapo 3-1 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 2.32 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.96 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.16 / defence 0.82 against Deportes Copiapo attack 0.91 / defence 1.40, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 68% | Draw 18% | Deportes Copiapo 14%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 50%, Deportes Copiapo 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palestino's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palestino arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Palestino (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Deportes Copiapo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.