Huachipato 1-0 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 40%, yet in-form Huachipato provide a compelling counter-argument — this Huachipato vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 14 as Huachipato welcome Everton de Vina to Estadio CAP. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 May 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Huachipato — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Huachipato's home record at Estadio CAP: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio CAP. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio CAP this season.
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Huachipato carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Huachipato, 1 for Everton de Vina and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Huachipato winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Huachipato in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Huachipato 50% versus Everton de Vina 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Huachipato 47% | Everton de Vina 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Huachipato 1.38 xG and Everton de Vina 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Huachipato attack 0.802 / defence 0.991 | Everton de Vina attack 1.067 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.418. Data: 43 Huachipato games / 43 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Huachipato 35% | Draw 25% | Everton de Vina 40%. Fair-value odds: Huachipato 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Everton de Vina 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Huachipato (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Huachipato 50% | Everton de Vina 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Huachipato vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio CAP • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Huachipato 35% | Draw 25% | Everton de Vina 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Huachipato 1.38 / Everton de Vina 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Huachipato attack 0.802 / def 0.991 | Everton de Vina attack 1.067 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Huachipato xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Everton de Vina xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Huachipato vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Huachipato vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Estadio CAP.
What was the final score in Huachipato vs Everton de Vina?
Huachipato 1 - 0 Everton de Vina.
Where is Huachipato vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio CAP.
What competition is Huachipato vs Everton de Vina part of?
Huachipato vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Huachipato vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Huachipato a 35% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Huachipato vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Huachipato and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Huachipato vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Everton de Vina?
Record (5 meetings): Huachipato 3W | Draws 1 | Everton de Vina 1W.
What form are Huachipato and Everton de Vina in?
Huachipato (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Huachipato's attack rating (0.80) and Everton de Vina's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Huachipato's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
35%
2.86
25%
4.03
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Huachipato xG
Total xG
2.88
1.50
Everton de Vina xG
2.86
35%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
8%
12.82
10%
9.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Huachipato vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Huachipato and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Huachipato and 1.50 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Huachipato vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Huachipato come into this having played 60 games, going 27W 11D 22L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Everton de Vina sit at 1.45 PPG from 60 outings (22W 21D 17L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Huachipato on 1.53 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Huachipato's home form reads 15W 6D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton de Vina have taken 1.43 points per game from 30 outings (11W 10D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Huachipato are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.37 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Huachipato
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Huachipato and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Huachipato have gone 27W 11D 22L in their last 60 games (1.53 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 22W 21D 17L in their last 60 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Huachipato at home or Everton de Vina away?
Huachipato's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Huachipato at home: 1.70 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Huachipato or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Huachipato have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Huachipato and Everton de Vina runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2025, when Huachipato won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Huachipato's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Huachipato
1
Draws
3
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Huachipato have won 6, Everton de Vina have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Huachipato and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Everton de Vina 0-3 Huachipato.
Who has won more matches between Huachipato and Everton de Vina?
Huachipato have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Huachipato are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Huachipato 53%, Everton de Vina 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Huachipato) and 37% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Huachipato keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Huachipato home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Huachipato play Everton de Vina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Huachipato's games and 57% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Huachipato vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Huachipato's recent games and 37% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Huachipato and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Huachipato have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Huachipato defy the odds to beat Everton de Vina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Huachipato beat Everton de Vina 1-0 at Estadio CAP, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Huachipato 1.38 xG and Everton de Vina 1.50 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Everton de Vina landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huachipato attack 0.80 / defence 0.99 against Everton de Vina attack 1.07 / defence 1.14, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Huachipato 35% | Draw 25% | Everton de Vina 40%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Huachipato win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Huachipato 47%, Everton de Vina 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Huachipato's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Huachipato 1.53 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Huachipato win broke the near-deadlock. Huachipato (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.