Deportes Iquique 0-4 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Deportes Iquique at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Deportes Iquique face Union Espanola.

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Analysis

Union Espanola make the trip to Estadio Tierra de Campeones to face Deportes Iquique in Primera División (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Sunday 16 March 2025 at 23:30 UK time.

Current Form

Deportes Iquique's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Deportes Iquique's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Deportes Iquique are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Union Espanola have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Union Espanola's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Deportes Iquique against 1.30 for Union Espanola. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Deportes Iquique, 1 for Union Espanola and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2024, ended Deportes Iquique 2–0 Union Espanola — a Deportes Iquique win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Deportes Iquique goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Union Espanola goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Deportes Iquique 70% and Union Espanola 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Deportes Iquique 77% | Union Espanola 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Iquique 1.64 xG and Union Espanola 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Iquique attack 0.965 / defence 1.341 | Union Espanola attack 0.805 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.067. Deportes Iquique's defence rating of 1.341 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Union Espanola's projected output up. Data: built from Deportes Iquique's last 34 games and Union Espanola's last 33.

Result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 48% | Draw 27% | Union Espanola 26%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Iquique 2.10 | Draw 3.77 | Union Espanola 3.89. Deportes Iquique hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Deportes Iquique as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Deportes Iquique if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Deportes Iquique's last 10 home games and Union Espanola's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Deportes Iquique 70% (last 10 home games) | Union Espanola 50% (last 10 away games).

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