Deportes Iquique 0-3 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Colo Colo at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Deportes Iquique and Colo Colo meet at Estadio Tierra de Campeones in Primera División, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 May 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Colo Colo (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Colo Colo's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Iquique 1.40 xG and Colo Colo 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Iquique attack 1.137 / defence 1.071 | Colo Colo attack 1.020 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.404. Data: 13 Deportes Iquique games / 43 Colo Colo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 35% | Draw 25% | Colo Colo 41%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Iquique 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Colo Colo 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Colo Colo at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Colo Colo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Tierra de Campeones • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 35% | Draw 25% | Colo Colo 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Deportes Iquique 1.40 / Colo Colo 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Iquique attack 1.137 / def 1.071 | Colo Colo attack 1.020 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Deportes Iquique xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Colo Colo xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo kick off?
Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What was the final score in Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo?
Deportes Iquique 0 - 3 Colo Colo.
Where is Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What competition is Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo part of?
Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Iquique a 35% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Deportes Iquique and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Colo Colo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deportes Iquique and Colo Colo in?
Colo Colo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Colo Colo away split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Deportes Iquique's attack at 1.14x the league average against Colo Colo's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Colo Colo's attack (1.02x) against Deportes Iquique's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
35%
2.89
25%
4.07
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Deportes Iquique xG
Total xG
2.93
1.53
Colo Colo xG
2.89
35%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
7%
13.36
10%
9.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Deportes Iquique and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Deportes Iquique and 1.53 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Iquique vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
Colo Colo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 26 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 4-0 on 26 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deportes Iquique have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Colo Colo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Deportes Iquique
1
Draws
3
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Colo Colo?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Iquique have won 0, Colo Colo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Iquique and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2025, when Colo Colo 4-0 Deportes Iquique.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Iquique and Colo Colo?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Iquique home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Colo Colo run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Deportes Iquique.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Deportes Iquique 0-3 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.40 xG and Colo Colo 1.53 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Deportes Iquique fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Colo Colo outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 1.14 / defence 1.07 against Colo Colo attack 1.02 / defence 0.82, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 35% | Draw 25% | Colo Colo 41%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.