Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Everton de Vina travel to Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso to take on Coquimbo Unido. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 November 2026, 21:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido's home record at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Everton de Vina have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Form points away from home here. Everton de Vina's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Coquimbo Unido's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Coquimbo Unido, 3 for Everton de Vina and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 53% versus Everton de Vina 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 47% | Everton de Vina 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.05 xG and Everton de Vina 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.879 / defence 0.894 | Everton de Vina attack 1.261 / defence 0.754. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.353. Everton de Vina's defence strength of 0.754 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Everton de Vina have an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Coquimbo Unido games / 51 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 26% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 48%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Everton de Vina 2.08. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Coquimbo Unido 60% | Everton de Vina 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 26% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.05 / Everton de Vina 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.879 / def 0.894 | Everton de Vina attack 1.261 / def 0.754 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Everton de Vina xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 26% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina?
Record (9 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 2W | Draws 4 | Everton de Vina 3W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Coquimbo Unido's attack at 0.88x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
26%
3.82
26%
3.90
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.58
1.52
Everton de Vina xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
6%
17.54
17%
5.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.52 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coquimbo Unido's recent record stands at 30W 11D 8L from 49 games, a 2.06 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton de Vina, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 22L across 49 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Coquimbo Unido by 0.94 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton de Vina heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Coquimbo Unido have managed 14W 6D 3L from 23 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Everton de Vina's away record stands at 8W 2D 13L across 23 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.16 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 30W 11D 8L in their last 49 games (2.06 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 14W 13D 22L in their last 49 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Everton de Vina away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 2.09 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Coquimbo Unido or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 22 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Coquimbo Unido
4
Draws
3
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, Everton de Vina have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Everton de Vina 1-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 56%, Everton de Vina 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Coquimbo Unido) and 52% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Everton de Vina in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Coquimbo Unido's recent matches and 39% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 52% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.