Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Deportes Limache make the trip to to face Coquimbo Unido in Primera División, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Coquimbo Unido have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 4W 3D 3L at — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Deportes Limache (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Limache, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Deportes Limache's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Coquimbo Unido against 1.30 for Deportes Limache. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Coquimbo Unido, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Deportes Limache — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2026, ended 3–2 with Coquimbo Unido winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Coquimbo Unido and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

Coquimbo Unido goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Deportes Limache goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 55% versus Deportes Limache 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 49% | Deportes Limache 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.95 xG and Deportes Limache 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.130 / defence 0.924 | Deportes Limache attack 1.114 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.315. Data: 53 Coquimbo Unido games / 54 Deportes Limache games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 51% | Draw 22% | Deportes Limache 27%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | Deportes Limache 3.70. Coquimbo Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 50% | Deportes Limache 70% BTTS from recent games.

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