Coquimbo Unido 0-2 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Colo Colo at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Colo Colo travel to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso to take on Coquimbo Unido. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 October 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Colo Colo — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Colo Colo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Colo Colo have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Colo Colo — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Coquimbo Unido, 1 for Colo Colo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 0–4 with Colo Colo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Coquimbo Unido in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Colo Colo in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 56% versus Colo Colo 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 52% | Colo Colo 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.00 xG and Colo Colo 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.875 / defence 1.088 | Colo Colo attack 1.219 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.165. Colo Colo have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 27 Coquimbo Unido games / 59 Colo Colo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 25% | Draw 26% | Colo Colo 50%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Colo Colo 2.00. Colo Colo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Colo Colo as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Colo Colo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Coquimbo Unido 50% | Colo Colo 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 25% | Draw 26% | Colo Colo 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.00 / Colo Colo 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.875 / def 1.088 | Colo Colo attack 1.219 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Colo Colo xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo?
Coquimbo Unido 0 - 2 Colo Colo.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 25% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo?
Record (1 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 0W | Draws 0 | Colo Colo 1W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Colo Colo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Coquimbo Unido's attack rating (0.88) and Colo Colo's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Colo Colo's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
25%
4.07
26%
3.92
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.55
1.54
Colo Colo xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
5%
19.06
18%
5.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.54 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Coquimbo Unido have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 6W 5D 16L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Colo Colo's form line: 16W 8D 3L from 27 games, 2.07 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Colo Colo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Colo Colo are the form team by 1.22 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Coquimbo Unido.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Coquimbo Unido have posted 1.31 PPG from 13 outings (5W 2D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 0.85 PPG overall — Coquimbo Unido are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Colo Colo have gone 6W 4D 3L from 13 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Colo Colo are on 1.81 scored and 0.59 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Colo Colo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 6W 5D 16L in their last 27 games (0.85 PPG), while Colo Colo have gone 16W 8D 3L in their last 27 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Colo Colo away?
Colo Colo's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.31 PPG; Colo Colo away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Coquimbo Unido or Colo Colo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Colo Colo in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2022, when Colo Colo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Colo Colo specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Coquimbo Unido
2
Draws
5
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, Colo Colo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Colo Colo 3-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Coquimbo Unido at 62%, Colo Colo at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Coquimbo Unido) and 46% (Colo Colo).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Colo Colo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 69% of Colo Colo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 46% of Colo Colo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Colo Colo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Colo Colo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Coquimbo Unido.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Coquimbo Unido 0-2 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 28, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.00 xG and Colo Colo 1.54 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Colo Colo attack 1.22 / defence 0.86, drawn from 27/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 25% | Draw 26% | Colo Colo 50%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 52%, Colo Colo 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Colo Colo's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. Colo Colo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.