Colo Colo 0-1 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Colo Colo at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Deportes Copiapo make the trip to Estadio Monumental David Arellano to face Colo Colo in Primera División, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 June 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Colo Colo (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Colo Colo have posted 7W 1D 2L at Estadio Monumental David Arellano — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Deportes Copiapo have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Deportes Copiapo's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Colo Colo, 1.60 for Deportes Copiapo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Colo Colo lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Colo Colo — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Deportes Copiapo — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colo Colo 50% versus Deportes Copiapo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colo Colo 40% | Deportes Copiapo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 2.18 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 1.120 / defence 0.814 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.781 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.445. Deportes Copiapo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Colo Colo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Colo Colo games / 44 Deportes Copiapo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 66% | Draw 19% | Deportes Copiapo 15%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Deportes Copiapo 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Colo Colo (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Colo Colo are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Colo Colo 50% | Deportes Copiapo 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 66% | Draw 19% | Deportes Copiapo 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 53% | xG Colo Colo 2.18 / Deportes Copiapo 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 1.120 / def 0.814 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.781 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Deportes Copiapo xG
53%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo kick off?
Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo?
Colo Colo 0 - 1 Deportes Copiapo.
Where is Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo part of?
Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 66% chance of winning, Deportes Copiapo a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Colo Colo and Deportes Copiapo will score (BTTS).
Will Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Deportes Copiapo?
Record (2 meetings): Colo Colo 1W | Draws 1 | Deportes Copiapo 0W.
What form are Colo Colo and Deportes Copiapo in?
Colo Colo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Deportes Copiapo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Colo Colo's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Deportes Copiapo's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.18. Flip it around — Deportes Copiapo's attack (0.78x) against Colo Colo's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
66%
1.51
19%
5.20
15%
6.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
3.10
0.92
Deportes Copiapo xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.20
19%
Draw
6.83
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
11%
8.83
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
2%
60.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Deportes Copiapo expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Colo Colo and 0.92 for Deportes Copiapo, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Colo Colo come into this having played 30 games, going 15W 9D 6L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Deportes Copiapo sit at 1.13 PPG from 30 outings (8W 10D 12L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Colo Colo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Deportes Copiapo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Colo Colo's home form reads 9W 3D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Deportes Copiapo have taken 0.73 points per game from 15 outings (2W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Colo Colo are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Deportes Copiapo are on 1.07 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Current Season
Deportes Copiapo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colo Colo and Deportes Copiapo in coming into this match?
Colo Colo have gone 15W 9D 6L in their last 30 games (1.80 PPG), while Deportes Copiapo have gone 8W 10D 12L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colo Colo at home or Deportes Copiapo away?
Colo Colo's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colo Colo at home: 2.00 PPG; Deportes Copiapo away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Colo Colo or Deportes Copiapo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Deportes Copiapo in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 2-5 on 22 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Colo Colo have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Deportes Copiapo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Colo Colo
2
Draws
1
Deportes Copiapo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Deportes Copiapo?
From 4 meetings on record, Colo Colo have won 1, Deportes Copiapo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Deportes Copiapo last play each other?
They last met on 10 November 2024, when Deportes Copiapo 1-1 Colo Colo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colo Colo 47%, Deportes Copiapo 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Colo Colo) and 33% (Deportes Copiapo).
On the defensive side: Colo Colo keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Deportes Copiapo in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Deportes Copiapo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colo Colo play Deportes Copiapo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Colo Colo's recent matches and 40% of Deportes Copiapo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Colo Colo's recent games and 33% of Deportes Copiapo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colo Colo and Deportes Copiapo tend to score early?
Colo Colo have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Deportes Copiapo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Deportes Copiapo defy the odds to beat Colo Colo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Copiapo beat Colo Colo 0-1 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 15, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 2.18 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.92 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Colo Colo fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.12 / defence 0.81 against Deportes Copiapo attack 0.78 / defence 1.29, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 66% | Draw 19% | Deportes Copiapo 15%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Deportes Copiapo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 40%, Deportes Copiapo 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colo Colo's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Deportes Copiapo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Colo Colo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Deportes Copiapo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.