Union Espanola 5-3 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Espanola at 67%, yet in-form Deportes Copiapo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Union Espanola vs Deportes Copiapo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Deportes Copiapo make the trip to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK to face Union Espanola in Primera División (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 23:30 UK time.
Current Form
Union Espanola's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union Espanola's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Union Espanola are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Deportes Copiapo have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Deportes Copiapo away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Deportes Copiapo arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Union Espanola, 1 for Deportes Copiapo and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Union Espanola 3–4 Deportes Copiapo — a Deportes Copiapo win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Union Espanola half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Deportes Copiapo half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Espanola 43% versus Deportes Copiapo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Espanola 43% | Deportes Copiapo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 2.32 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 1.351 / defence 1.099 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.750 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.202. Union Espanola carry an above-average attack rating of 1.351 — their 2.32 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Deportes Copiapo's defence rating of 1.264 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Union Espanola's projected output up. Deportes Copiapo's attack rating of 0.750 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Union Espanola's last 38 games and Deportes Copiapo's last 38.
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 67% | Draw 18% | Deportes Copiapo 15%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 1.49 | Draw 5.48 | Deportes Copiapo 6.85. The model has a clear lean to Union Espanola (67%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Espanola are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Deportes Copiapo (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Union Espanola 50% (last 10 home games) | Deportes Copiapo 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs Deportes Copiapo | Competition: Primera División, matchday 9 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 67% | Draw 18% | Deportes Copiapo 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Union Espanola 2.32 / Deportes Copiapo 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 1.351 / def 1.099 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.750 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Deportes Copiapo xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Espanola vs Deportes Copiapo FAQs
What time does Union Espanola vs Deportes Copiapo kick off?
Union Espanola vs Deportes Copiapo kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs Deportes Copiapo?
Union Espanola 5 - 3 Deportes Copiapo.
Where is Union Espanola vs Deportes Copiapo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs Deportes Copiapo part of?
Union Espanola vs Deportes Copiapo is a Primera División fixture (matchday 9) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 67% chance of winning, Deportes Copiapo a 15% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Union Espanola and Deportes Copiapo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union Espanola vs Deportes Copiapo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Union Espanola's attack at 1.35x the league average against Deportes Copiapo's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Deportes Copiapo's attack (0.75x) against Union Espanola's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Union Espanola's last 38 games and Deportes Copiapo's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
67%
1.49
18%
5.48
15%
6.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
3.31
0.99
Deportes Copiapo xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.48
18%
Draw
6.85
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
10%
10.22
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
1%
69.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Espanola vs Deportes Copiapo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and Deportes Copiapo expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Union Espanola and 0.99 for Deportes Copiapo, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs Deportes Copiapo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union Espanola's recent record stands at 10W 9D 11L from 30 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Deportes Copiapo, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 12L across 30 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Union Espanola against 1.13 for Deportes Copiapo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Union Espanola have managed 7W 5D 3L from their last 15 home games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Union Espanola are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Deportes Copiapo's away record stands at 2W 5D 8L across their last 15 away games, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Espanola come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union Espanola are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Deportes Copiapo are on 1.07 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Current Season
Deportes Copiapo
Current Season
Union Espanola (Home) vs Deportes Copiapo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Espanola
Current Season
Deportes Copiapo
Current Season
❓ Union Espanola vs Deportes Copiapo Form FAQs
What form are Union Espanola and Deportes Copiapo in coming into this match?
Union Espanola have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Deportes Copiapo have gone 8W 10D 12L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Espanola at home or Deportes Copiapo away?
Union Espanola's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Espanola at home: 1.73 PPG; Deportes Copiapo away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Union Espanola or Deportes Copiapo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Espanola have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Deportes Copiapo in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Union Espanola and Deportes Copiapo, the earliest from March 2023. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent in our data was on 15 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Union Espanola have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Espanola won Union Espanola 3-0 Deportes Copiapo on 4 Mar 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Espanola have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Deportes Copiapo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Union Espanola
0
Draws
1
Deportes Copiapo
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Espanola vs Deportes Copiapo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Deportes Copiapo?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Espanola have won 3, Deportes Copiapo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and Deportes Copiapo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 September 2024: Deportes Copiapo 2-3 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Union Espanola and Deportes Copiapo?
Union Espanola have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Espanola 47%, Deportes Copiapo 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Union Espanola) and 33% (Deportes Copiapo).
On the defensive side: Union Espanola keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Deportes Copiapo in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / Deportes Copiapo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Espanola vs Deportes Copiapo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Espanola and Deportes Copiapo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Union Espanola's recent matches and 40% of Deportes Copiapo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Union Espanola and Deportes Copiapo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Union Espanola's recent games and 33% of Deportes Copiapo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Espanola and Deportes Copiapo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Union Espanola's recent matches and 73% of Deportes Copiapo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Espanola cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Deportes Copiapo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Espanola beat Deportes Copiapo 5-3 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 2.32 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.99 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Union Espanola beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Deportes Copiapo outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 1.35 / defence 1.10 against Deportes Copiapo attack 0.75 / defence 1.26, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 67% | Draw 18% | Deportes Copiapo 15%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 43%, Deportes Copiapo 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Espanola's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Espanola 1.30 PPG, Deportes Copiapo 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Espanola win broke the near-deadlock. Union Espanola (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Deportes Copiapo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.