Everton de Vina 2-0 Universidad de Chile – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Universidad de Chile at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Sausalito plays host to Everton de Vina versus Universidad de Chile in Primera División (matchday 6). Kick-off: Thursday 27 March 2025 at 23:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Everton de Vina have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Everton de Vina's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Universidad de Chile (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Universidad de Chile away from home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
On a straight form reading, Universidad de Chile are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Everton de Vina, 2 for Universidad de Chile and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2024, ended Everton de Vina 1–1 Universidad de Chile — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Everton de Vina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Universidad de Chile goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 62% versus Universidad de Chile 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 50% | Universidad de Chile 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.07 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.787 / defence 0.939 | Universidad de Chile attack 1.078 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.111. Everton de Vina's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Data: built from Everton de Vina's last 35 games and Universidad de Chile's last 34.
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 32% | Draw 32% | Universidad de Chile 35%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 3.09 | Draw 3.09 | Universidad de Chile 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Universidad de Chile as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Everton de Vina 40% (last 10 home games) | Universidad de Chile 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile | Competition: Primera División, matchday 6 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Thursday 27 March 2025 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 32% | Draw 32% | Universidad de Chile 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Everton de Vina 1.07 / Universidad de Chile 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.787 / def 0.939 | Universidad de Chile attack 1.078 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Universidad de Chile xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile FAQs
What time does Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Thursday 27 March 2025 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile?
Everton de Vina 2 - 0 Universidad de Chile.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile part of?
Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile is a Primera División fixture (matchday 6) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 32% chance of winning, Universidad de Chile a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (0.79) and Universidad de Chile's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Universidad de Chile's attack (1.08x) against Everton de Vina's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Everton de Vina's last 35 games and Universidad de Chile's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
32%
3.09
32%
3.09
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.19
1.12
Universidad de Chile xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
11%
9.50
12%
8.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.12 for Universidad de Chile, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Everton de Vina's recent record stands at 25W 15D 20L from 60 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Universidad de Chile, meanwhile, have gone 30W 15D 15L across 60 games — 1.75 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.75 for Universidad de Chile. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Everton de Vina have managed 12W 8D 10L from their last 30 home games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Universidad de Chile's away record stands at 17W 4D 9L across their last 30 away games, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Universidad de Chile are on 1.55 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Universidad de Chile in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Universidad de Chile
Current Season
Everton de Vina (Home) vs Universidad de Chile (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Universidad de Chile
Current Season
❓ Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile Form FAQs
What form are Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 25W 15D 20L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while Universidad de Chile have gone 30W 15D 15L in their last 60 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Universidad de Chile away?
Universidad de Chile's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.47 PPG; Universidad de Chile away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Universidad de Chile been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Universidad de Chile in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was as recently as 26 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Universidad de Chile won Universidad de Chile 4-1 Everton de Vina on 26 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Universidad de Chile — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
4
Universidad de Chile
Recent Meetings
❓ Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Everton de Vina have won 3, Universidad de Chile have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 October 2026: Universidad de Chile 4-1 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile?
Universidad de Chile have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Universidad de Chile are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 53%, Universidad de Chile 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Everton de Vina and 73% for Universidad de Chile. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Universidad de Chile away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Chile Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Everton de Vina's games and 63% of Universidad de Chile's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Everton de Vina's matches and 73% of Universidad de Chile's.
Do Everton de Vina and Universidad de Chile matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 80% of Universidad de Chile's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Universidad de Chile.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Universidad de Chile 2-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.07 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.12 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Everton de Vina beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Universidad de Chile landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.79 / defence 0.94 against Universidad de Chile attack 1.08 / defence 0.94, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 32% | Draw 32% | Universidad de Chile 35%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Everton de Vina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 50%, Universidad de Chile 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.50 PPG, Universidad de Chile 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.