Everton de Vina 0-0 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 44%, yet in-form Everton de Vina provide a compelling counter-argument — this Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Everton de Vina welcome Coquimbo Unido to Estadio Sausalito in Primera División (matchday 5). Kick-off is Saturday 15 March 2025 at 23:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Everton de Vina have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Everton de Vina's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Coquimbo Unido stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Coquimbo Unido's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Everton de Vina have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Everton de Vina, 1 for Coquimbo Unido and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Sep 2024, ended Everton de Vina 2–2 Coquimbo Unido — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Everton de Vina trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Everton de Vina 62% and Coquimbo Unido 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 50% | Coquimbo Unido 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.13 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.874 / defence 1.063 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.165 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.166. Data: built from Everton de Vina's last 34 games and Coquimbo Unido's last 34.
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 30% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 44%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 3.38 | Draw 3.82 | Coquimbo Unido 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Everton de Vina (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Everton de Vina 40% (last 10 home games) | Coquimbo Unido 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, matchday 5 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 15 March 2025 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 30% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Everton de Vina 1.13 / Coquimbo Unido 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.874 / def 1.063 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.165 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Coquimbo Unido xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido FAQs
What time does Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Everton de Vina 0 - 0 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido is a Primera División fixture (matchday 5) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 30% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (0.87) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Everton de Vina's last 34 games and Coquimbo Unido's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
30%
3.38
26%
3.82
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.58
1.44
Coquimbo Unido xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
7%
14.31
14%
7.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.44 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Everton de Vina's recent record stands at 25W 15D 20L from 60 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Coquimbo Unido, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 19L across 60 games — 1.58 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 1.50 PPG, Coquimbo Unido on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Everton de Vina have managed 12W 8D 10L from their last 30 home games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Coquimbo Unido's away record stands at 11W 6D 13L across their last 30 away games, a 1.30 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.37 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Coquimbo Unido in 60%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
Everton de Vina (Home) vs Coquimbo Unido (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido Form FAQs
What form are Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 25W 15D 20L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 27W 14D 19L in their last 60 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.47 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was on 22 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Everton de Vina
4
Draws
2
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Everton de Vina have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 May 2026: Everton de Vina 1-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 53%, Coquimbo Unido 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Everton de Vina) and 50% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Everton de Vina's games and 60% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 50% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 57% of Coquimbo Unido's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Everton de Vina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 5, as Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido drew 0-0 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.13 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.44 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Everton de Vina fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Coquimbo Unido landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.17 / defence 0.85, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 30% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 44%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 50%, Coquimbo Unido 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.50 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.