York United 1-1 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates York United at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this York United vs Valour encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Valour make the trip to York Lions Stadium to face York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 September 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
York United have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at York Lions Stadium, York United have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Valour's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valour away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in York United's favour (1.80 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — York United have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Valour in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — York United lead 3W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with York United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
York United half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 60% versus Valour 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 64% | Valour 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.83 xG and Valour 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 1.100 / defence 0.953 | Valour attack 1.165 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.145. Data: 50 York United games / 50 Valour games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 50% | Draw 23% | Valour 26%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Valour 3.85. York United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates York United as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on York United if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: York United 60% | Valour 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 50% | Draw 23% | Valour 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG York United 1.83 / Valour 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 1.100 / def 0.953 | Valour attack 1.165 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: York United (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Valour xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Valour kick off?
York United vs Valour kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Valour?
York United 1 - 1 Valour.
Where is York United vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Valour part of?
York United vs Valour is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives York United a 50% chance of winning, Valour a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both York United and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Valour?
Record (5 meetings): York United 3W | Draws 0 | Valour 2W.
What form are York United and Valour in?
York United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Valour (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from York United's attack rating (1.10) and Valour's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valour's attack (1.17x) against York United's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
50%
1.99
23%
4.27
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
York United xG
Total xG
3.10
1.27
Valour xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
4%
23.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.5 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are York United and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for York United and 1.27 for Valour, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
York United come into this having played 50 games, going 21W 10D 19L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valour sit at 0.96 PPG from 50 outings (12W 12D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Valour — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
York United's home form reads 10W 4D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Valour have taken 0.78 points per game from 23 outings (4W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, York United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
York United are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.02 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Valour in coming into this match?
York United have gone 21W 10D 19L in their last 50 games (1.46 PPG), while Valour have gone 12W 12D 26L in their last 50 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Valour away?
York United's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.48 PPG; Valour away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
York United
2
Draws
3
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 5, Valour have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did York United and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when York United 1-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between York United and Valour?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Valour see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 52%, Valour 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for York United and 56% for Valour. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: York United have failed to score in 30% of games; Valour in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Valour?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of York United's recent matches and 56% of Valour's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of York United's matches and 56% of Valour's.
Do York United and Valour tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Valour in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
York United and Valour share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as York United and Valour drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.83 xG and Valour 1.27 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. York United fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.10 / defence 0.95 against Valour attack 1.17 / defence 1.14, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 50% | Draw 23% | Valour 26%, with York United to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 64%, Valour 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (50 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Valour's trading profile (50 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, York United arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.