York United 2-2 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pacific FC at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this York United vs Pacific FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Pacific FC travel to IG Field to take on York United. The game is scheduled for Thursday 1 July 2021, 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, York United have gone 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. York United have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pacific FC — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Pacific FC have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pacific FC are 3.00 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 0.91 xG and Pacific FC 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.975 / defence 1.150 | Pacific FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.811 / away 1.405. Data: 1 York United games / 1 Pacific FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: York United 25% | Draw 28% | Pacific FC 48%. Fair-value odds: York United 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Pacific FC 2.08. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pacific FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Jul 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 25% | Draw 28% | Pacific FC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG York United 0.91 / Pacific FC 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.975 / def 1.150 | Pacific FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.811 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Pacific FC xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Pacific FC kick off?
York United vs Pacific FC kicked off at 22:00 on Thursday 1 July 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in York United vs Pacific FC?
York United 2 - 2 Pacific FC.
Where is York United vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is York United vs Pacific FC part of?
York United vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives York United a 25% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both York United and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Pacific FC in?
York United (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L. Pacific FC (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates York United's attack at 0.97x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus York United's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
25%
4.02
28%
3.64
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
York United xG
Total xG
2.28
1.37
Pacific FC xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
6%
15.87
19%
5.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 14.0 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are York United and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for York United and 1.37 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
York United's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for York United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pacific FC, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pacific FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pacific FC by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over York United heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
York United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Pacific FC in 0%.
Defensively: Pacific FC in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Early Season
Pacific FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
York United have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have York United or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2025, when York United won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
York United's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
York United
3
Draws
2
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 5, Pacific FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did York United and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pacific FC 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and Pacific FC?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of York United's recent matches and 0% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of York United's recent games and 0% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Pacific FC tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
York United and Pacific FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at IG Field, Regular Season - 2, as York United and Pacific FC drew 2-2 in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 0.91 xG and Pacific FC 1.37 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. York United beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Pacific FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 25% | Draw 28% | Pacific FC 48%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 100%, Pacific FC 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. York United scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Pacific FC shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.