Vancouver FC 0-0 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valour at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vancouver FC vs Valour fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre plays host to Vancouver FC versus Valour in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 6 August 2023 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vancouver FC have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vancouver FC's home record at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre: 2W 2D 4L from 8 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Valour (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, Valour have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Vancouver FC, 0.80 for Valour — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Vancouver FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Valour goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vancouver FC 53% versus Valour 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vancouver FC 47% | Valour 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 1.21 xG and Valour 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 0.961 / defence 1.553 | Valour attack 0.715 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.305. Data: 17 Vancouver FC games / 45 Valour games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 32% | Draw 26% | Valour 43%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Valour 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valour at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valour if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vancouver FC 62% | Valour 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Aug 2023, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 32% | Draw 26% | Valour 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Vancouver FC 1.21 / Valour 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 0.961 / def 1.553 | Valour attack 0.715 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Valour (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Valour xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vancouver FC vs Valour kick off?
Vancouver FC vs Valour kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs Valour?
Vancouver FC 0 - 0 Valour.
Where is Vancouver FC vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs Valour part of?
Vancouver FC vs Valour is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 32% chance of winning, Valour a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Vancouver FC and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will Vancouver FC vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Valour?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vancouver FC and Valour in?
Vancouver FC (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Valour (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vancouver FC's attack at 0.96x the league average against Valour's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valour's attack (0.71x) against Vancouver FC's defence (1.55x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 17/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
32%
3.17
26%
3.87
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
2.66
1.45
Valour xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
7%
13.51
13%
7.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.45 for Valour, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vancouver FC come into this having played 17 games, going 3W 4D 10L for 0.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valour sit at 0.94 PPG from 17 outings (3W 7D 7L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.76 PPG for Vancouver FC against 0.94 for Valour. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Vancouver FC's home form reads 2W 2D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Valour have taken 0.75 points per game from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Vancouver FC are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 0.76 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vancouver FC and Valour in coming into this match?
Vancouver FC have gone 3W 4D 10L in their last 17 games (0.76 PPG), while Valour have gone 3W 7D 7L in their last 17 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vancouver FC at home or Valour away?
Vancouver FC's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vancouver FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Valour away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 6 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Valour go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vancouver FC won 4-1 on 15 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vancouver FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Vancouver FC
2
Draws
4
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, Vancouver FC have won 4, Valour have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2025, when Vancouver FC 2-5 Valour.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Valour see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vancouver FC 62%, Valour 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Vancouver FC) and 12% (Valour).
On the defensive side: Valour in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vancouver FC play Valour?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Vancouver FC's recent matches and 38% of Valour's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vancouver FC vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Vancouver FC's recent games and 12% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vancouver FC and Valour tend to score early?
Vancouver FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Valour in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vancouver FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre, Regular Season - 8, as Vancouver FC and Valour drew 0-0 in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.21 xG and Valour 1.45 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vancouver FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Valour landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.55 against Valour attack 0.71 / defence 1.00, drawn from 17/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 32% | Draw 26% | Valour 43%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 47%, Valour 18%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vancouver FC's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valour's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vancouver FC 0.76 PPG, Valour 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Valour (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.