Valour 0-1 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Valour at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valour vs Vancouver FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vancouver FC make the trip to IG Field to face Valour in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Thursday 21 September 2023 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Valour (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valour's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at IG Field this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vancouver FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vancouver FC away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Valour against 0.70 for Vancouver FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Valour lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Valour — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Vancouver FC — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 50% versus Vancouver FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 38% | Vancouver FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.67 xG and Vancouver FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.969 / defence 1.154 | Vancouver FC attack 0.601 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.393. Vancouver FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.306 — this is suppressing Valour's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Valour games / 24 Vancouver FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 52% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Valour 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Vancouver FC 5.00. Valour hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valour as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valour if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valour 60% | Vancouver FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Sep 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 52% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Valour 1.67 / Vancouver FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.969 / def 1.154 | Vancouver FC attack 0.601 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Valour (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Valour xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Vancouver FC xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Valour vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 01:00 on Thursday 21 September 2023 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs Vancouver FC?
Valour 0 - 1 Vancouver FC.
Where is Valour vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs Vancouver FC part of?
Valour vs Vancouver FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 52% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Valour and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Vancouver FC?
Record (1 meetings): Valour 0W | Draws 1 | Vancouver FC 0W.
What form are Valour and Vancouver FC in?
Valour (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Vancouver FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Valour's attack at 0.97x the league average against Vancouver FC's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vancouver FC's attack (0.60x) against Valour's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 52/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
52%
1.92
28%
3.59
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Valour xG
Total xG
2.64
0.97
Vancouver FC xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
4%
26.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Valour and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Valour and 0.97 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Valour come into this having played 24 games, going 5W 8D 11L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vancouver FC sit at 0.83 PPG from 24 outings (5W 5D 14L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Valour against 0.83 for Vancouver FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Valour's home form reads 3W 4D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Vancouver FC have taken 0.42 points per game from 12 outings (1W 2D 9L). That's a step down from their 0.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vancouver FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valour come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Valour are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 0.92 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 5W 8D 11L in their last 24 games (0.96 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 5W 5D 14L in their last 24 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or Vancouver FC away?
Valour's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.08 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 6 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Valour have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vancouver FC won 4-1 on 15 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Vancouver FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Valour
2
Draws
4
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 4, Vancouver FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2025, when Vancouver FC 2-5 Valour.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 58%, Vancouver FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Valour) and 50% (Vancouver FC).
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play Vancouver FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Valour's recent matches and 50% of Vancouver FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs Vancouver FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Valour's recent games and 50% of Vancouver FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and Vancouver FC tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Vancouver FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vancouver FC defy the odds to beat Valour 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vancouver FC beat Valour 0-1 at IG Field, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.67 xG and Vancouver FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Valour fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Vancouver FC attack 0.60 / defence 1.31, drawn from 52/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 52% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 20%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Vancouver FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 38%, Vancouver FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valour 0.96 PPG, Vancouver FC 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vancouver FC win broke the near-deadlock. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.