Valour 3-0 FC Edmonton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valour at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valour vs FC Edmonton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
IG Field plays host to Valour versus FC Edmonton in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Wednesday 25 August 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valour have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at IG Field, Valour have gone 4W 0D 1L this season (5 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 5 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at IG Field. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Valour are significantly better at IG Field than their overall form suggests.
FC Edmonton (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton away from home this season: 0W 2D 4L from 6 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Valour against 1.00 for FC Edmonton. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Valour 0W, FC Edmonton 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC Edmonton half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 25% versus FC Edmonton 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Valour 33% | FC Edmonton 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.39 xG and FC Edmonton 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 1.094 / defence 0.986 | FC Edmonton attack 0.808 / defence 1.372. League average goals — home 0.926 / away 0.944. FC Edmonton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.372 — this is suppressing Valour's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Valour games / 12 FC Edmonton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 52% | Draw 28% | FC Edmonton 20%. Fair-value odds: Valour 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | FC Edmonton 5.00. Valour hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valour are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valour if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Valour 0% | FC Edmonton 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs FC Edmonton | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 52% | Draw 28% | FC Edmonton 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Valour 1.39 / FC Edmonton 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 1.094 / def 0.986 | FC Edmonton attack 0.808 / def 1.372 | league avg home 0.926 / away 0.944 • Poisson stance: Valour (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Valour xG
Expected Goals
0.75
FC Edmonton xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs FC Edmonton kick off?
Valour vs FC Edmonton kicked off at 01:00 on Wednesday 25 August 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs FC Edmonton?
Valour 3 - 0 FC Edmonton.
Where is Valour vs FC Edmonton being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs FC Edmonton part of?
Valour vs FC Edmonton is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs FC Edmonton?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 52% chance of winning, FC Edmonton a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs FC Edmonton?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Valour and FC Edmonton will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs FC Edmonton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and FC Edmonton?
Record (2 meetings): Valour 0W | Draws 1 | FC Edmonton 1W.
What form are Valour and FC Edmonton in?
Valour (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Valour's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against FC Edmonton's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — FC Edmonton's attack (0.81x) against Valour's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 13/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
52%
1.92
28%
3.62
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Valour xG
Total xG
2.14
0.75
FC Edmonton xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
5%
19.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.3 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs FC Edmonton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Valour and FC Edmonton expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Valour and 0.75 for FC Edmonton, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs FC Edmonton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Valour have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 5W 1D 6L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Edmonton's form line: 3W 4D 5L from 12 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Valour against 1.08 for FC Edmonton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Valour have posted 2.40 PPG from 5 outings (4W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Valour are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Edmonton have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Edmonton's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valour come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Valour are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; FC Edmonton are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Valour have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Valour have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
FC Edmonton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and FC Edmonton in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 5W 1D 6L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while FC Edmonton have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or FC Edmonton away?
Valour's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 2.40 PPG; FC Edmonton away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Valour or FC Edmonton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, FC Edmonton in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valour won 3-0 on 25 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Valour
6
Draws
3
FC Edmonton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and FC Edmonton?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 1, FC Edmonton have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Valour and FC Edmonton last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2022, when FC Edmonton 3-1 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and FC Edmonton?
FC Edmonton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Valour) and 60% (FC Edmonton) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Valour and 40% for FC Edmonton.
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; FC Edmonton in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / FC Edmonton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play FC Edmonton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Valour's recent matches and 60% of FC Edmonton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs FC Edmonton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Valour's recent games and 40% of FC Edmonton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and FC Edmonton tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Edmonton in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Valour run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Edmonton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour beat FC Edmonton 3-0 at IG Field, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.39 xG and FC Edmonton 0.75 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Valour beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 1.09 / defence 0.99 against FC Edmonton attack 0.81 / defence 1.37, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 52% | Draw 28% | FC Edmonton 20%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 33%, FC Edmonton 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Edmonton's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valour 1.33 PPG, FC Edmonton 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valour win broke the near-deadlock. Valour (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.