Valour 1-1 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valour vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
IG Field plays host to Valour versus Atlético Ottawa in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 23 April 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valour have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Valour have posted 6W 2D 2L at IG Field — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at IG Field. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Valour are significantly better at IG Field than their overall form suggests.
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atlético Ottawa away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Atlético Ottawa half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 50% versus Atlético Ottawa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 45% | Atlético Ottawa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.05 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 1.016 / defence 0.940 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.043 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.069 / away 1.260. Data: 29 Valour games / 29 Atlético Ottawa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Valour 30% | Draw 32% | Atlético Ottawa 39%. Fair-value odds: Valour 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Atlético Ottawa 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atlético Ottawa at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Valour 40% | Atlético Ottawa 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 30% | Draw 32% | Atlético Ottawa 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Valour 1.05 / Atlético Ottawa 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 1.016 / def 0.940 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.043 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.069 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Atlético Ottawa xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Valour vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Valour 1 - 1 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Valour vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Valour vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 30% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Valour and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Atlético Ottawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valour and Atlético Ottawa in?
Valour (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Valour's attack at 1.02x the league average against Atlético Ottawa's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.04x) against Valour's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
30%
3.38
32%
3.17
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Valour xG
Total xG
2.28
1.24
Atlético Ottawa xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
9%
11.62
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Valour and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Valour and 1.24 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Valour have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 20W 12D 24L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Atlético Ottawa's form line: 19W 19D 18L from 56 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Valour against 1.36 for Atlético Ottawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Valour have posted 1.70 PPG from 27 outings (13W 7D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Valour are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Atlético Ottawa have gone 11W 7D 9L from 27 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Valour are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.20 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Current Season
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 20W 12D 24L in their last 56 games (1.29 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 19W 19D 18L in their last 56 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Valour's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.70 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Valour or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 5-2 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Valour
3
Draws
6
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 1, Atlético Ottawa have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Valour 3-3 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Valour and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valour see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Atlético Ottawa see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 33%, Atlético Ottawa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Valour) and 41% (Atlético Ottawa).
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play Atlético Ottawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Valour's recent matches and 52% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Valour's recent games and 41% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Valour and Atlético Ottawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour and Atlético Ottawa finished level at 1-1 at IG Field, Regular Season - 2, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.05 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.24 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 1.02 / defence 0.94 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.04 / defence 0.96, drawn from 29/29 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 30% | Draw 32% | Atlético Ottawa 39%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 45%, Atlético Ottawa 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valour 1.29 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.