Valour 0-1 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valour at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valour vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
IG Field plays host to Valour versus Atlético Ottawa in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Thursday 2 June 2022 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valour have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Valour have posted 3W 3D 4L at IG Field — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atlético Ottawa away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Atlético Ottawa half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 43% versus Atlético Ottawa 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 50% | Atlético Ottawa 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.19 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.877 / defence 0.771 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.099 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.234. Valour's defence rating of 0.771 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Valour games / 35 Atlético Ottawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 39% | Draw 29% | Atlético Ottawa 32%. Fair-value odds: Valour 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Atlético Ottawa 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valour at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valour if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Valour 40% | Atlético Ottawa 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Thursday 2 Jun 2022, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 39% | Draw 29% | Atlético Ottawa 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Valour 1.19 / Atlético Ottawa 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.877 / def 0.771 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.099 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Valour (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Atlético Ottawa xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Valour vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 01:00 on Thursday 2 June 2022 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Valour 0 - 1 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Valour vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Valour vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 39% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Valour and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Atlético Ottawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valour and Atlético Ottawa in?
Valour (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Valour's attack at 0.88x the league average against Atlético Ottawa's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.10x) against Valour's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
39%
2.55
29%
3.48
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Valour xG
Total xG
2.23
1.04
Atlético Ottawa xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
10%
10.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Valour and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Valour and 1.04 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Valour have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 10W 5D 13L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Atlético Ottawa's form line: 6W 8D 14L from 28 games, 0.93 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Valour against 0.93 for Atlético Ottawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Valour have posted 1.71 PPG from 14 outings (7W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Valour are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Atlético Ottawa have gone 3W 3D 8L from 14 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valour come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Valour are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.07 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Defensively: Valour have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Current Season
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 10W 5D 13L in their last 28 games (1.25 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 6W 8D 14L in their last 28 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Valour's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.71 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Valour or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 5-2 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Valour
3
Draws
6
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 1, Atlético Ottawa have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Valour 3-3 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Valour and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 29%, Atlético Ottawa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Valour) and 36% (Atlético Ottawa).
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Valour have failed to score in 29% of games; Atlético Ottawa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play Atlético Ottawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Valour's recent matches and 50% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Valour's recent games and 36% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Atlético Ottawa defy the odds to beat Valour 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Valour 0-1 at IG Field, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.19 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.04 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Valour fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.88 / defence 0.77 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.10 / defence 1.02, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 39% | Draw 29% | Atlético Ottawa 32%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Atlético Ottawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 50%, Atlético Ottawa 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valour 1.25 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.