Pacific FC 2-3 Supra du Quebec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pacific FC host Supra du Quebec at Starlight Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 22:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pacific FC — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Starlight Stadium, Pacific FC have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Pacific FC are significantly better at Starlight Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 2.03 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.974 / defence 1.093 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.809 / away 1.268. Data: 28 Pacific FC games / 0 Supra du Quebec games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 55% | Draw 24% | Supra du Quebec 20%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Supra du Quebec 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Pacific FC (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pacific FC are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 55% | Draw 24% | Supra du Quebec 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Pacific FC 2.03 / Supra du Quebec 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.974 / def 1.093 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.809 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Supra du Quebec xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec kick off?
Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Pacific FC 2 - 3 Supra du Quebec.
Where is Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec part of?
Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 55% chance of winning, Supra du Quebec a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Pacific FC and Supra du Quebec will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Supra du Quebec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and Supra du Quebec in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Pacific FC home split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (0.97) and Supra du Quebec's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Supra du Quebec's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.08
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
3.21
1.18
Supra du Quebec xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
13%
7.59
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
3%
37.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Supra du Quebec expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.18 for Supra du Quebec, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Pre-Season
Supra du Quebec
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Pacific FC's record when hosting Supra du Quebec specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Pacific FC
1
Draws
2
Supra du Quebec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Supra du Quebec?
From 3 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 0, Supra du Quebec have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Supra du Quebec last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Pacific FC 1-2 Supra du Quebec.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Supra du Quebec?
Supra du Quebec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Supra du Quebec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Supra du Quebec defy the odds to beat Pacific FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Supra du Quebec beat Pacific FC 2-3 at Starlight Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 2.03 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.18 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Supra du Quebec outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.09 against Supra du Quebec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 28/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 55% | Draw 24% | Supra du Quebec 20%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Supra du Quebec win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.