Forge 3-3 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees York United travel to Tim Hortons Field to take on Forge. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 August 2023, 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge at Tim Hortons Field this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York United away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Forge) versus 1.20 (York United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Forge trading profile (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
York United trading profile (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 43% versus York United 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 40% | York United 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.55 xG and York United 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.108 / defence 1.046 | York United attack 1.199 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.285. Data: 47 Forge games / 47 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 37% | Draw 24% | York United 39%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | York United 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is York United at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on York United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Forge 70% | York United 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 37% | Draw 24% | York United 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Forge 1.55 / York United 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.108 / def 1.046 | York United attack 1.199 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: York United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.61
York United xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs York United kick off?
Forge vs York United kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs York United?
Forge 3 - 3 York United.
Where is Forge vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs York United part of?
Forge vs York United is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 37% chance of winning, York United a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs York United?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Forge and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and York United in?
Forge (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. York United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Forge's attack rating (1.11) and York United's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
37%
2.71
24%
4.23
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Forge xG
Total xG
3.17
1.61
York United xG
2.71
37%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
7%
13.57
8%
12.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Forge and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Forge and 1.61 for York United, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Forge have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 23W 10D 14L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United's form line: 16W 11D 20L from 47 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against York United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Forge have posted 1.73 PPG from 22 outings (11W 5D 6L).
On the road, York United have gone 9W 5D 8L from 22 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.13 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and York United in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 23W 10D 14L in their last 47 games (1.68 PPG), while York United have gone 16W 11D 20L in their last 47 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or York United away?
Forge's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.73 PPG; York United away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Forge or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, York United in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forge and York United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Forge have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Forge won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting York United specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Forge
3
Draws
0
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 7, York United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and York United last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when York United 1-3 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and York United?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
York United see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 54%, York United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Forge) and 54% (York United).
On the defensive side: York United in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Forge's recent matches and 50% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Forge's recent games and 54% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Forge and York United share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge and York United finished level at 3-3 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.55 xG and York United 1.61 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Forge beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. York United outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.11 / defence 1.05 against York United attack 1.20 / defence 1.09, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 37% | Draw 24% | York United 39%, with York United to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 40%, York United 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
York United's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Forge (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. York United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.