Forge 3-1 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Forge at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Forge vs York United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Championship - Semi-finals sees York United travel to Tim Hortons Field to take on Forge. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Forge at Tim Hortons Field this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
York United away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Forge carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Forge trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
York United trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 32% versus York United 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 39% | York United 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.60 xG and York United 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.088 / defence 0.982 | York United attack 0.991 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.138 / away 1.193. York United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.291 — this is suppressing Forge's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Forge games / 28 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 47% | Draw 27% | York United 27%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | York United 3.70. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Forge at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Forge 40% | York United 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Championship - Semi-finals | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 47% | Draw 27% | York United 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Forge 1.60 / York United 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.088 / def 0.982 | York United attack 0.991 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.138 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Forge (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.16
York United xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs York United kick off?
Forge vs York United kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs York United?
Forge 3 - 1 York United.
Where is Forge vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs York United part of?
Forge vs York United is a Championship - Semi-finals fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 47% chance of winning, York United a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs York United?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Forge and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and York United in?
Forge (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. York United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Forge's attack rating (1.09) and York United's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
47%
2.15
27%
3.73
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Forge xG
Total xG
2.76
1.16
York United xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
5%
18.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Forge and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Forge and 1.16 for York United, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 28 outings, Forge have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 16W 2D 10L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
York United's form line: 8W 12D 8L from 28 games, 1.29 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against York United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Forge have posted 1.79 PPG from 14 outings (8W 1D 5L).
On the road, York United have gone 4W 5D 5L from 14 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.25 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United in 68%.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and York United in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 16W 2D 10L in their last 28 games (1.79 PPG), while York United have gone 8W 12D 8L in their last 28 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or York United away?
Forge's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.79 PPG; York United away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Forge or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, York United in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forge and York United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Forge have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Forge won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting York United specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Forge
3
Draws
0
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 7, York United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and York United last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when York United 1-3 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and York United?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 36%, York United 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Forge) and 64% (York United).
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Forge have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Forge's recent matches and 71% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Forge's recent games and 64% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and York United tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, York United in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Forge cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat York United 3-1 at Tim Hortons Field, Championship - Semi-finals, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.60 xG and York United 1.16 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Forge beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.09 / defence 0.98 against York United attack 0.99 / defence 1.29, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 47% | Draw 27% | York United 27%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 39%, York United 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
York United's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Forge (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. York United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.