Forge 3-2 Supra du Quebec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Forge at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Forge vs Supra du Quebec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Group Stage sees Supra du Quebec travel to Tim Hortons Field to take on Forge. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 19 August 2026, 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Forge stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Forge have posted 6W 1D 3L at Tim Hortons Field — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tim Hortons Field. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Supra du Quebec have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Supra du Quebec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Supra du Quebec have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.43 PPG). They are averaging 1.86 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Forge have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Forge have won 2, Supra du Quebec 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Jul 2026, ended 2–1 with Forge winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Forge trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Supra du Quebec trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Forge 44% and Supra du Quebec 81% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 44% | Supra du Quebec 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 2.12 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.016 / defence 0.973 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 28 Forge games / 0 Supra du Quebec games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Forge 60% | Draw 23% | Supra du Quebec 16%. Fair-value odds: Forge 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Supra du Quebec 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Forge (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Forge 20% | Supra du Quebec 86%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Supra du Quebec | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Aug 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 60% | Draw 23% | Supra du Quebec 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Forge 2.12 / Supra du Quebec 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.016 / def 0.973 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Forge (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Supra du Quebec xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Supra du Quebec kick off?
Forge vs Supra du Quebec kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 19 August 2026 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Supra du Quebec?
Forge 3 - 2 Supra du Quebec.
Where is Forge vs Supra du Quebec being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Supra du Quebec part of?
Forge vs Supra du Quebec is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Supra du Quebec?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 60% chance of winning, Supra du Quebec a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Supra du Quebec?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Forge and Supra du Quebec will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Supra du Quebec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Supra du Quebec?
Record (2 meetings): Forge 2W | Draws 0 | Supra du Quebec 0W.
What form are Forge and Supra du Quebec in?
Forge (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Supra du Quebec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Forge's attack at 1.02x the league average against Supra du Quebec's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Supra du Quebec's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
60%
1.66
23%
4.30
16%
6.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Forge xG
Total xG
3.16
1.05
Supra du Quebec xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
6.10
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
12%
8.30
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
2%
50.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Supra du Quebec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Forge and Supra du Quebec expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Forge and 1.05 for Supra du Quebec, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Supra du Quebec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Forge come into this having played 16 games, going 11W 2D 3L for 2.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Supra du Quebec sit at 1.12 PPG from 16 outings (5W 3D 8L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Supra du Quebec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Forge carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.07 PPG clear of Supra du Quebec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Forge's home form reads 5W 1D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Supra du Quebec have taken 1.43 points per game from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Forge are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Supra du Quebec are on 1.44 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Supra du Quebec in 81%.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Blended
Supra du Quebec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Supra du Quebec in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 11W 2D 3L in their last 16 games (2.19 PPG), while Supra du Quebec have gone 5W 3D 8L in their last 16 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Supra du Quebec away?
Forge's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 2.29 PPG; Supra du Quebec away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Forge or Supra du Quebec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Supra du Quebec in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Forge's record when hosting Supra du Quebec specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Forge
0
Draws
1
Supra du Quebec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Supra du Quebec?
From 4 meetings on record, Forge have won 3, Supra du Quebec have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Supra du Quebec last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Supra du Quebec 1-0 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Supra du Quebec?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Forge see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Supra du Quebec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 14%, Supra du Quebec 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Forge) and 71% (Supra du Quebec).
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Forge have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Supra du Quebec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Supra du Quebec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Forge's recent matches and 86% of Supra du Quebec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs Supra du Quebec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Forge's recent games and 71% of Supra du Quebec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Supra du Quebec tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Supra du Quebec in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Forge edge out Supra du Quebec 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat Supra du Quebec 3-2 at Tim Hortons Field, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 2.12 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.05 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Forge beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Supra du Quebec outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.02 / defence 0.97 against Supra du Quebec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 28/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 60% | Draw 23% | Supra du Quebec 16%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 44%, Supra du Quebec 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Supra du Quebec's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Forge (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Supra du Quebec (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.