FC Edmonton 1-0 HFX Wanderers FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Edmonton at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
HFX Wanderers FC make the trip to IG Field to face FC Edmonton in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Thursday 22 July 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form
FC Edmonton (all games): 1W 2D 3L across 6 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 0.83 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.83 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Edmonton have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Edmonton's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 games at IG Field this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.83 — FC Edmonton are significantly better at IG Field than their overall form suggests.
HFX Wanderers FC have collected 0.83 PPG across 6 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 1W 2D 3L. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. HFX Wanderers FC have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, HFX Wanderers FC have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.83 PPG for FC Edmonton against 0.83 for HFX Wanderers FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Edmonton lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2021, ended 1–2 with HFX Wanderers FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Edmonton — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
HFX Wanderers FC — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Edmonton 50% versus HFX Wanderers FC 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Edmonton 17% | HFX Wanderers FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 0.99 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 0.923 / defence 1.074 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.576 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 0.878 / away 0.896. HFX Wanderers FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing FC Edmonton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 FC Edmonton games / 6 HFX Wanderers FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 43% | Draw 38% | HFX Wanderers FC 18%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 2.33 | Draw 2.63 | HFX Wanderers FC 5.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.54. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.54 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — HFX Wanderers FC's lower xG of 0.56 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Edmonton are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Edmonton if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.54 combined xG gives a 20% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 28%. Form rates corroborate: FC Edmonton 33% | HFX Wanderers FC 0% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (6 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Jul 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 43% | Draw 38% | HFX Wanderers FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 28% | xG FC Edmonton 0.99 / HFX Wanderers FC 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 0.923 / def 1.074 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.576 / def 1.221 | league avg home 0.878 / away 0.896 • Poisson stance: FC Edmonton (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
0.56
HFX Wanderers FC xG
28%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC kick off?
FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 22 July 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC?
FC Edmonton 1 - 0 HFX Wanderers FC.
Where is FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC part of?
FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 43% chance of winning, HFX Wanderers FC a 18% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making FC Edmonton the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC?
Record (1 meetings): FC Edmonton 0W | Draws 0 | HFX Wanderers FC 1W.
What form are FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.17 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Edmonton's attack rating (0.92) and HFX Wanderers FC's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — HFX Wanderers FC's attack (0.58x) against FC Edmonton's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.56.
The sample (6/6 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 22.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (19.6%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Edmonton Win
43%
2.31
38%
2.62
18%
5.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
21.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
1.54
0.56
HFX Wanderers FC xG
2.31
43%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
5.42
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.51
72%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
57%
1.74
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
7%
14.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.4 | 11.9 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 21.1 | 11.7 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.9%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 0.56 for HFX Wanderers FC, a combined total of 1.54.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Edmonton come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 2D 3L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for FC Edmonton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, HFX Wanderers FC sit at 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for HFX Wanderers FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for FC Edmonton against 0.83 for HFX Wanderers FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC Edmonton's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.83 PPG overall — FC Edmonton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, HFX Wanderers FC have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 0.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of HFX Wanderers FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Edmonton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Edmonton are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; HFX Wanderers FC are on 0.50 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Early Season
HFX Wanderers FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while HFX Wanderers FC have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Edmonton at home or HFX Wanderers FC away?
FC Edmonton's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Edmonton at home: 1.33 PPG; HFX Wanderers FC away: 0.33 PPG.
Have FC Edmonton or HFX Wanderers FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Edmonton have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, HFX Wanderers FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Edmonton have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against HFX Wanderers FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
FC Edmonton
1
Draws
4
HFX Wanderers FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 2, HFX Wanderers FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2022, when FC Edmonton 3-2 HFX Wanderers FC.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC?
HFX Wanderers FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Edmonton tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (FC Edmonton) and 0% (HFX Wanderers FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for FC Edmonton and 0% for HFX Wanderers FC.
On the defensive side: FC Edmonton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; HFX Wanderers FC in 33%; FC Edmonton have failed to score in 33% of games; HFX Wanderers FC in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / HFX Wanderers FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play HFX Wanderers FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of FC Edmonton's recent matches and 0% of HFX Wanderers FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Edmonton vs HFX Wanderers FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 0% of HFX Wanderers FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Edmonton and HFX Wanderers FC tend to score early?
FC Edmonton have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, HFX Wanderers FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Edmonton edge out HFX Wanderers FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Edmonton beat HFX Wanderers FC 1-0 at IG Field, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 0.99 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 0.56 xG, a combined 1.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 0.92 / defence 1.07 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.58 / defence 1.22, drawn from 6/6 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 43% | Draw 38% | HFX Wanderers FC 18%, with FC Edmonton to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 47% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 17%, HFX Wanderers FC 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Edmonton's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Edmonton 0.83 PPG, HFX Wanderers FC 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Edmonton win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.