FC Edmonton 0-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to Clarke Field to face FC Edmonton in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Thursday 2 September 2021 at 02:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Edmonton's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton at Clarke Field this season: 3W 2D 1L from 6 home games — 1.83 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Clarke Field. Their home PPG of 1.83 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Edmonton are significantly better at Clarke Field than their overall form suggests.
Cavalry FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC's away record: 4W 1D 1L from 6 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (2.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cavalry FC are 0.80 PPG clear of FC Edmonton in recent Canadian Premier League fixtures (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: FC Edmonton 0W, Cavalry FC 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC Edmonton half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Cavalry FC half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Edmonton 50% versus Cavalry FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Edmonton 43% | Cavalry FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 0.94 xG and Cavalry FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 0.879 / defence 0.931 | Cavalry FC attack 1.065 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.069 / away 1.003. Data: 14 FC Edmonton games / 14 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 33% | Draw 31% | Cavalry FC 36%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Cavalry FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Edmonton 33% | Cavalry FC 67%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Clarke Field • Kick-off: Thursday 2 Sep 2021, 02:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 33% | Draw 31% | Cavalry FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG FC Edmonton 0.94 / Cavalry FC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 0.879 / def 0.931 | Cavalry FC attack 1.065 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.069 / away 1.003 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Cavalry FC xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC kick off?
FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 02:00 on Thursday 2 September 2021 at Clarke Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC?
FC Edmonton 0 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Clarke Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC part of?
FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 33% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC?
Record (2 meetings): FC Edmonton 0W | Draws 1 | Cavalry FC 1W.
What form are FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Cavalry FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Edmonton's attack rating (0.88) and Cavalry FC's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.06x) against FC Edmonton's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
33%
3.05
31%
3.18
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
1.93
0.99
Cavalry FC xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 14.4 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 0.99 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, FC Edmonton have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 5D 6L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC's form line: 7W 4D 3L from 14 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Edmonton.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Edmonton have posted 1.83 PPG from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — FC Edmonton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
FC Edmonton are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.21 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 3W 5D 6L in their last 14 games (1.00 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 7W 4D 3L in their last 14 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Edmonton at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Edmonton at home: 1.83 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 2.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cavalry FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 0-3 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Edmonton have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
FC Edmonton
2
Draws
7
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC?
From 9 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 0, Cavalry FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2022, when FC Edmonton 0-1 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Edmonton tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Edmonton 33%, Cavalry FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (FC Edmonton) and 67% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: FC Edmonton keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; FC Edmonton have failed to score in 33% of games; Cavalry FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of FC Edmonton's recent matches and 67% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Edmonton vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 67% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Edmonton and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
FC Edmonton have had a goal before half-time in 17% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out FC Edmonton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat FC Edmonton 0-1 at Clarke Field, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 0.94 xG and Cavalry FC 0.99 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Edmonton fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 0.88 / defence 0.93 against Cavalry FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.00, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 33% | Draw 31% | Cavalry FC 36%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 43%, Cavalry FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Edmonton's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.