Cavalry FC 2-1 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cavalry FC vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 24 June 2023 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cavalry FC have posted 5W 1D 4L at ATCO Field — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
York United's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, York United have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Cavalry FC, 1.70 for York United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
York United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 49% versus York United 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 49% | York United 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.50 xG and York United 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.233 / defence 0.987 | York United attack 1.125 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.171. Data: 38 Cavalry FC games / 40 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 41% | Draw 28% | York United 31%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | York United 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Cavalry FC 50% | York United 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jun 2023, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 41% | Draw 28% | York United 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Cavalry FC 1.50 / York United 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.233 / def 0.987 | York United attack 1.125 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.30
York United xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs York United kick off?
Cavalry FC vs York United kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 24 June 2023 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Cavalry FC 2 - 1 York United.
Where is Cavalry FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs York United part of?
Cavalry FC vs York United is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 41% chance of winning, York United a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Cavalry FC and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and York United in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. York United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cavalry FC's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against York United's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — York United's attack (1.12x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 38/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.58
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.80
1.30
York United xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
7%
14.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.30 for York United, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 26W 14D 17L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
York United's form line: 17W 19D 21L from 57 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Cavalry FC against 1.23 for York United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 1.76 PPG from 29 outings (15W 6D 8L).
On the road, York United have gone 8W 9D 12L from 29 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.18 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and York United in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 26W 14D 17L in their last 57 games (1.61 PPG), while York United have gone 17W 19D 21L in their last 57 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or York United away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.76 PPG; York United away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, York United in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Cavalry FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 5-0 on 2 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Cavalry FC
1
Draws
2
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 7, York United have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and York United last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 5-0 York United.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and York United?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
York United see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 48%, York United 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cavalry FC) and 52% (York United).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; York United in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 55% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 52% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and York United tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, York United in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out York United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat York United 2-1 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.50 xG and York United 1.30 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.23 / defence 0.99 against York United attack 1.12 / defence 0.98, drawn from 38/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 41% | Draw 28% | York United 31%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 49%, York United 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
York United's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.61 PPG, York United 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.