Cavalry FC 2-1 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cavalry FC vs Valour fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus Valour in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 2 October 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cavalry FC have posted 6W 0D 4L at ATCO Field — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Cavalry FC are significantly better at ATCO Field than their overall form suggests.
Valour's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valour's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Cavalry FC half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 48% versus Valour 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 50% | Valour 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.62 xG and Valour 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.059 / defence 1.014 | Valour attack 0.978 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.164. Data: 54 Cavalry FC games / 54 Valour games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 48% | Draw 25% | Valour 27%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Valour 3.70. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 40% | Valour 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 48% | Draw 25% | Valour 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Cavalry FC 1.62 / Valour 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.059 / def 1.014 | Valour attack 0.978 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Valour xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Valour kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Valour kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Cavalry FC 2 - 1 Valour.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Valour part of?
Cavalry FC vs Valour is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 48% chance of winning, Valour a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Cavalry FC and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Valour?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and Valour in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Valour (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 1.06x the league average against Valour's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valour's attack (0.98x) against Cavalry FC's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
48%
2.08
25%
4.06
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.77
1.16
Valour xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
5%
18.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.16 for Valour, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 25W 13D 16L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valour's form line: 20W 12D 22L from 54 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Cavalry FC against 1.33 for Valour. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 1.69 PPG from 26 outings (13W 5D 8L).
On the road, Valour have gone 6W 5D 15L from 26 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valour's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.33 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Valour in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Valour in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 25W 13D 16L in their last 54 games (1.63 PPG), while Valour have gone 20W 12D 22L in their last 54 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Valour away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.69 PPG; Valour away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Valour in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 4-0 on 25 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Cavalry FC
2
Draws
2
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 6, Valour have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Valour?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 46%, Valour 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cavalry FC) and 58% (Valour).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cavalry FC have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Valour?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Cavalry FC's games and 65% of Valour's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 58% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Valour tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Valour in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out Valour 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Valour 2-1 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.62 xG and Valour 1.16 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.01 against Valour attack 0.98 / defence 1.18, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 48% | Draw 25% | Valour 27%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 50%, Valour 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Valour's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.63 PPG, Valour 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.