Cavalry FC 2-1 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Cavalry FC take on Pacific FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Pacific FC travel to ATCO Field to take on Cavalry FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 October 2021, 02:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cavalry FC stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at ATCO Field this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Pacific FC have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cavalry FC 1.60 PPG, Pacific FC 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Cavalry FC in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 54% versus Pacific FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 46% | Pacific FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 0.92 xG and Pacific FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 0.775 / defence 0.998 | Pacific FC attack 0.856 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.076 / away 1.140. Cavalry FC's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 Cavalry FC games / 24 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 31% | Draw 35% | Pacific FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Pacific FC 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 40% | Pacific FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 02:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 31% | Draw 35% | Pacific FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Cavalry FC 0.92 / Pacific FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 0.775 / def 0.998 | Pacific FC attack 0.856 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.076 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Pacific FC xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC kicked off at 02:00 on Friday 22 October 2021 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Cavalry FC 2 - 1 Pacific FC.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC part of?
Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 31% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cavalry FC and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Pacific FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 0.78x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Cavalry FC's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.25
35%
2.82
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
1.89
0.97
Pacific FC xG
3.25
31%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 14.7 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.97 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cavalry FC's recent record stands at 11W 8D 5L from 24 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 6D 6L across 24 games — 1.75 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cavalry FC on 1.71 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cavalry FC have managed 4W 5D 2L from 11 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pacific FC's away record stands at 4W 3D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.67 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC in 62%.
Last 24 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 11W 8D 5L in their last 24 games (1.71 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 12W 6D 6L in their last 24 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Pacific FC away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.55 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Cavalry FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cavalry FC's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Cavalry FC
3
Draws
1
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 6, Pacific FC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 46%, Pacific FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Cavalry FC) and 46% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Pacific FC in 36%; Cavalry FC have failed to score in 46% of games; Pacific FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 46% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 46% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cavalry FC defy the odds to beat Pacific FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Pacific FC 2-1 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 0.92 xG and Pacific FC 0.97 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 0.78 / defence 1.00 against Pacific FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.10, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 31% | Draw 35% | Pacific FC 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Cavalry FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 46%, Pacific FC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Pacific FC's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.71 PPG, Pacific FC 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm. Pacific FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.